Daily Market Update 8/31/12

Mortgage rates were little changed Friday following Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.  While not announcing any new stimulus measures, Bernanke said the Fed "should not rule out the further use" of "nontraditional policies", such as bond purchases by the Fed, to stimulate the economy if conditions warrant.  Stocks rallied shortly after the speech, while mortgage-backed securities recovered from earlier losses.  In economic news, the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index came in at 53.0, a bit below forecast.  Readings above 50.0 indicate expansion in manufacturing.  Consumer Sentiment rose unexpectedly to 74.3.  Factory Orders increased 2.8% last month, beating expectations.  The big news next week will be Friday's Employment Report for August.  The financial markets will be closed on Monday in observance of Labor Day.  No other key data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 8/30/12

Rates held steady Thursday as mortgage-backed securities recovered from yesterdays losses on weaker than expected economic data.  This morning, the July Core PCE price index, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, was unchanged from June and was 1.6% higher than one year ago.  Both readings were below forecast.  Weekly Jobless Claims were unchanged from last week's upwardly revised figures at 374,000, slightly above expectations.  Personal Income rose 0.3%, matching forecast.  Results from today's 7-year Treasury auction will be released at 1:00 PM.

Daily Market Update 8/29/12

Rates were little changed Wednesday in another day of quiet trading.  In economic news, second quarter GDP was revised higher to 1.7%, in line with expectations.  The July Pending Home Sales index rose 2.4%, beating forecast, and providing further evidence of a modest recovery in the housing market.  Results from today's 5-year Treasury auction will be released at 1:00 PM.  The Beige Book, a survey of economic activity by the Federal Reserve's 12 Regional Banks, will be released at 2:00 PM.

Daily Market Update 8/28/12

Mortgage rates were little changed Tuesday following the release of mixed economic data.  This morning, the June S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index rose 2.3% from May and was 0.5% higher than one year ago, the first annual increase since September 2010.  Consumer Confidence fell sharply to 60.6, the lowest reading since last November.  Results from today's 2-year Treasury auction will be released at 1:00 PM.

Daily Market Update 8/27/12

Rates held steady Monday in quiet trading.  The big story this week will be speeches from central bank leaders at the Fed's annual economic policy symposium at Jackson Hole, Wyoming beginning on Friday.  No economic data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 8/24/12

Rates were little changed Friday as mortgage-backed securities held onto recent gains.  Mortgage rates improved by about 0.25% for the week.  In economic news, July Durable Goods Orders rose by a stronger than expected 4.2%, but declined by 0.4% excluding volatile aircraft orders.  Next week will be relatively quiet in terms of key economic data, with the exception of Thursday's Core PCE price index, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation.  No other data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 8/23/12

Rates eased slightly Thursday as mortgage-backed securities continued to rally on increased expectations that the Fed will take further easing action unless economic growth picks up sharply.  In economic news, weekly Jobless Claims rose to 372,000, above forecast.  New Home Sales increased to 372,000 annual units, beating expectations, and providing further evidence of a modest rebound in the housing market.  Stocks moved lower as German leaders expressed opposition to an extension of the time frame for Greece to implement reforms required by the bailout package.  No other data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 8/22/12

Rates inched lower Wednesday, driven by news out of Europe.  Reports that German Chancellor Merkel faces strong political opposition to providing additional aid to Greece has increased uncertainty in the region.  In economic news, Existing Home Sales rose by 2.3% to 4.47 million annual units, a bit below forecast.  The Mortgage Bankers Association weekly purchase activity index increased 0.9%, while the refinancing activity index fell 9.0%.  Average reported 30-year fixed rates rose 10 basis points to 3.86% with .42 "points".  Detailed minutes from the August 1 FOMC meeting of the Fed will be released at 2:00 PM.

Daily Market Update 8/21/12

Mortgage rates were little changed Tuesday in quiet trading.  Reports that German officials may support more lenient bailout terms for Greece boosted stocks.  No key economic data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 8/20/12

Mortgage rates held steady Monday.  Rumors that the European Central Bank (ECB) is working on the details of a major bond-buying program that would cap yields in troubled countries has caused some market volatility, although EU officials have denied the story.  No key data is scheduled for release today.

Daily Market Update 8/17/12

Mortgage rates were little changed Friday, but were .25% higher for the week.  In economic news, Consumer Sentiment rose unexpectedly to 73.6, the highest level in three months.  Leading Indicators increased 0.4%, slightly better than forecast.  The U.S. Treasury announced it will require mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to reduce their investment portfolios by 15% per year and turn all future profits over to the Treasury to minimize losses to U.S. taxpayers.  Next week's key data includes the release of minutes from the recent FOMC meeting of the Fed and Existing Home Sales on Wednesday, New Home Sales on Thursday, and Durable Goods Orders on Friday.  No other data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 8/16/12

Rates stabilized Thursday after hitting their highest levels in three months yesterday.  In economic news, weekly Jobless Claims rose to 366,000, in line with expectations.  July Housing Starts declined by 1% to an annual rate of 746,000, below forecast, although Building Permits increased by 6% to the highest level in four years.  The Philly Fed index, a survey of manufacturers in the Philadelphia region, came in at -7.1, lower than expected.  Readings below zero indicate contraction.  No other key data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 8/15/12

Mortgage rates continued their upward trend Wednesday in spite of the release of weaker than expected economic data.  This morning, the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) was unchanged from June.  An increase of 0.2% had been forecast.  The more closely watched Core CPI, excluding food and transportation components, rose 0.1%.  The Empire State index, which measures manufacturing activity across the state of New York, fell unexpectedly to -5.9.  Readings below zero indicate contraction in the manufacturing sector.  Industrial Production rose 0.6%, slightly above forecast.  The Mortgage Bankers Association weekly purchase activity index fell 4.5%, while the refinancing activity index declined 5.1%.  Average 30-year fixed rates were unchanged last week, at 3.76%, not including fees.  Mortgage rates have now risen by about .375% since late July as the economic crisis in Europe has not worsened and investors have lowered their expectations of further Fed easing.  While the outlook for economic growth remains uncomfortably low, mortgage rates are primarily impacted by the change in expectations.  No other data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 8/14/12

Rates moved higher Tuesday as stronger than expected economic data hurt mortgage-backed securities.  July Retail Sales rose 0.8%, well above the consensus forecast of 0.2%.  The Producer Price Index (PPI) increased 0.3% last month, above expectations, while the Core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy components, jumped 0.4%.  No other key data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 8/13/12

Mortgage rates were little changed Monday in quiet trading.  No key economic data will be released today.  Tomorrow, the Producer Price Index and Retail Sales figures will be released, and the Consumer Price Index and Industrial Production will come out on Wednesday.

Daily Market Update 8/9/12

Rates inched higher Thursday following the release of stronger than expected economic data.  Weekly Jobless Claims declined to 361,000, below the consensus forecast of 370,000.  The June Trade Deficit came in below expectations at $42.9 billion.  Mortgage giant Freddie Mac reported average 30-year fixed rates of 3.59% with 0.6 "points", the second consecutive weekly increase from a historic low of 3.49%.  Many of the larger banks have increased profit margins this year as mortgage demand has risen while competition has declined.  Results from today's 30-year Treasury auction will be released at 1:00 PM.

Daily Market Update 8/8/12

Mortgage rates were little changed Wednesday in quiet trading.  Second quarter Productivity rose at a 1.6% annual rate, slightly above expectations.  Results from today's 10-year Treasury auction will be released at 1:00 PM.

Daily Market Update 8/7/12

Mortgage rates faced upward pressure Tuesday.  Increased expectations for action by the European Central Bank boosted stocks and hurt mortgage-backed securities.  No economic data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 8/6/12

Rates were little changed Monday despite a moderate stock market rally.  It will be a relatively light week for economic news.  Investors will likely be focusing on events in Europe.  The Treasury will hold auctions of 3-, 10-, and 30-year notes over three days, beginning tomorrow.

Daily Market Update 8/3/12

Rates move higher Friday following the release of the July Employment Report.  The economy added 163,000 jobs last month, far more than expected.  The Unemployment Rate edged higher, however, to 8.3%.  Stocks rallied on the report, hurting mortgage-backed securities.  No other key data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 8/2/12

Rates were little changed Thursday in extremely volatile trading.  Yesterday, the Federal Reserve stopped short of launching a new round of economic stimulus, but said it will "provide additional accommodation as needed to promote a stronger economic recovery".  This morning, the European Central Bank (ECB) President stated that the ECB will prepare to purchase bonds in the coming weeks.  In the U.S., weekly Jobless Claims rose to 365,000, below the consensus forecast of 370,000.  Factory Orders fell 0.5%, far below expectations.  Non-farm Payrolls for July, the most highly anticipated economic data of the month, will be released tomorrow at 8:30 AM.  No other data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 8/1/12

Mortgage rates faced upward pressure Wednesday ahead of this afternoon's Fed statement.  Markets may be volatile as investors await possible news of another round of "Quantitative Easing" by the Federal Reserve (QE3).  In economic news, payroll firm ADP projected a gain of 163,000 private sector jobs in July, above the consensus forecast of 125,000.  Construction Spending rose 0.4%, a bit below expectations.  The Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index came in at 49.8, slightly lower than expected.  Readings below 50.0 indicate contraction in the manufacturing sector of the economy.  The Fed announcement will be released at 2:15 PM.