Daily Market Update 4/30/09

Mortgage rates inched higher again Thursday following the release of stronger than expected economic data. Weekly Jobless Claims came in below forecast, while the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index rose last month to a reading of 40.1, well above the consensus estimate of 35. Mortgage-backed securities have also been hurt this week by the rise in stock prices. The Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index will be released tomorrow.

Daily Market Update 4/29/09

Mortgage rates rose Wednesday as stocks surged following preliminary first quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data. GDP fell -6.1%, compared to a consensus forecast of -4.7%, but a breakdown of the report shows the large drop was mainly due to declines in inventories and business investment. Consumer spending actually far exceeded expectations. If the consumer trend continues, businesses will have to begin rebuilding depleted inventories of goods, lifting future economic activity. Separately, the Treasury announced it will sell $71 billion in long-term debt next week, a record high. This afternoon the Fed will wrap up a two-day FOMC meeting. There is no broad consensus on what the Fed will announce. Investors will be closely watching the Fed's outlook for the economy. The last Fed announcement on March 18 produced a huge reaction in mortgage-backed securities markets. A $26 billion 7-year Treasury auction will take place at 1:00 PM et, the Fed announcement will come at 2:15. It could be a volatile day.

Daily Market Update 4/28/09

Mortgage rates were little changed Tuesday. Consumer Confidence rose in April, far exceeding expectations. Preliminary first quarter GDP figures will be released tomorrow morning, followed by the Fed's FOMC meeting. Stocks were mixed. No other economic data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 4/27/09

Mortgage rates inched lower Monday as concerns about the spread of swine flu has hurt stocks and helped mortgage-backed securities. Investors are likely to focus on three large Treasury auctions this week and Wednesday's Federal Open Market Committee meeting. A $40 billion 2-year Treasury auction will take place this afternoon at 2:00 PM. No economic data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 4/24/09

Mortgage rates were little changed Friday as mortgage-backed securities outperformed Treasurys. In economic news, Durable Goods Orders fell 0.8%, less than forecast. New Home Sales declined 0.6%, beating expectations. Inventories of unsold homes dropped 5.2% in March, providing evidence the housing market may be stabilizing. Stocks and oil prices moved higher, the dollar lower. The latter half of next week will be busy in terms of key economic data. First quarter GDP will be released Wednesday, the same day as the Federal Open Market Committee meeting of the Federal Reserve. The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index will be released Thursday, followed by Friday's Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index. Investors will be watching each of these reports closely for signs of economic stabilization. Once traders consider the worst of the recession to be over, rates will move higher.

Daily Market Update 4/23/09

Mortgage rates held steady Thursday. Weekly Jobless Claims came in close to expectations, while Existing Home Sales declined 3%, exceeding forecast. One bright spot was a reported 4.2% increase in the median sale price in March from February, reversing earlier trends. Stocks moved lower. Durable Goods Orders and New Home Sales will be released Friday.

Daily Market Update 4/22/09

Mortgage rates inched higher Wednesday as stocks rebounded from sharp losses earlier in the week. Even so, our conventional 30-year fixed rate with no points or origination fee has remained at or below 5.0% since April 7. Low inflationary pressures and Fed purchases of mortgage-backed securities continue to offset concerns about the future supply of Treasury bonds needed to pay for excessive government debt. No economic data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 4/21/09

Mortgage rates inched lower Tuesday as mortgage-backed securities markets benefited from Monday's sharp stock sell-off. Investors have begun questioning the sustainability of the recent stock market rally given the depth of our current recession. The next major economic data will be released Thursday, consisting of weekly Jobless Claims, Durable Goods Orders, and Existing Home Sales.

Daily Market Update 4/20/09

Mortgage rates came in slightly lower Monday, buoyed by falling stock prices. The Conference Board's Index of Leading Indicators fell 0.3% last month, a bit more than forecast, indicating the recession is likely to last for several more months. Oil prices fell nearly $4 per barrel on weakening demand. The dollar moved higher. No more data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 4/17/09

Mortgage rates inched higher Friday to finish the week nearly unchanged from Monday. Despite a wide range of economic data and news released during the week, the outlook for the two major current influences on mortgage-backed securities prices, inflation and Fed purchases, remained the same. Consumer Sentiment rose last month to the highest level since September on indications the economy may be stabilizing. Few key economic reports are scheduled for release next week.

Daily Market Update 4/16/09

Mortgage rates remained little changed Thursday following the release of mixed economic data. Weekly Jobless Claims declined unexpectedly while Housing Starts fell short of expectations. Yesterday the Federal Reserve's Beige Book, a survey of economic activity by the Fed's 12 regional banks, showed signs the pace of decline may be easing. Consumer Sentiment will be released tomorrow at 10:00 AM.

Daily Market Update 4/15/09

Rates held steady Wednesday as year-over-year Consumer Prices declined for the first time since 1955. The Consumer Price Index for March fell 0.1%, totalling a 0.4% drop over the past 12 months. Industrial Production fell 1.5% in March, exceeding forecast. The Fed's Beige Book, a survey of economic conditions by the Federal Reserve's 12 regional banks, will be released at 2:00 PM.

Daily Market Update 4/14/09

Mortgage rates inched lower Tuesday following the release of weaker than expected economic data. Retail Sales fell 1.1% in March, indicating recovery from the current recession may be slow. The Producer Price Index declined 1.2%, while the closely watched "core" rate was unchanged. Stocks moved lower. The Consumer Price Index, Industrial Production, and the Fed's Beige Book will be released tomorrow.

Daily Market Update 4/9/09

Interest rates rose Thursday as global stock markets rallied on a stronger than expected earnings report from banking giant Wells Fargo. February's Trade Gap narrowed unexpectedly, hitting a 9-year low, on weak demand for foreign goods. Several key economic reports are due out the middle of next week, including the Producer Price Index and Retail Sales data on Tuesday, and Wednesday's release of the Consumer Price Index, Industrial Production, and the Fed's Beige Book. The mortgage-backed securities market closes today at 2:00 PM et for the Easter Holiday. No new rates will be issued tomorrow.

Daily Market Update 4/8/09

Mortgage rates inched lower Wednesday following strong demand for the 3-year Treasury auction. Minutes from the March 18 FOMC meeting indicated Fed officials were concerned about the risk that economic growth will be slower than expected in the second half of 2009 and in 2010. Stocks rose modestly. Tomorrow, weekly Jobless Claims, the Trade Balance, and Import Prices will be released at 8:30 AM. There will be a 10-year Treasury auction at 1:00 PM.

Daily Market Update 4/7/09

Mortgage rates eased Tuesday morning as stocks fell for a second straight day. Investors remain concerned over a slew of earnings reports due out this week and next. Billionaire financier George Soros warned that the recent stock market rally would likely be temporary. General Motors appeared to be making preparations for a possible reorganization under Chapter 11 bankruptcy. No major economic reports will be released today. The market will be closed Friday for Easter Holiday.

Daily Market Update 4/6/09

Mortgage rates were little changed Monday. Stock prices fell sharply as investors anticipated weak quarterly earnings reports later this week. Bank shares were especially hard-hit. No economic data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 4/3/09

Mortgage rates inched higher Friday reflecting a decline in mortgage-backed securities prices late Thursday. Non-farm Payrolls data showed a net loss of 663,000 jobs last month, close to consensus. The Unemployment Rate jumped to 8.5%, matching expectations. Average Hourly Earnings, a proxy for wage growth, matched forecast, rising at a 3.4% annual rate. The Institute for Supply Management services index fell more than expected in March. Average 30-year fixed mortgage rates declined to 4.78% with 0.7 points according to Freddie Mac's weekly survey, the lowest level on record. No major economic data is scheduled for release next week.

Daily Market Update 4/1/09

Interest rates moved higher Thursday as global stock markets rallied on perceived progress in the G-20 meeting and news from the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) of relaxed controversial "mark-to-market" accounting rules that have plagued banks and other financial firms. In economic news, Factory Orders rose 1.8% in March, exceeding forecast. Oil prices surged to nearly $52 per barrel. The dollar declined. Analysts are seeing strong indications the economy is no longer in free-fall and has begun to stabilize. Non-farm payrolls for March will be released at 8:30 AM Friday.

Daily Market Update 4/1/09

Mortgage rates held steady Wednesday following the release of stronger than expected economic data. Pending Home Sales increased 2.1% in February, driven by low interest rates and the $8,000 first-time homebuyer tax credit. The Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index rose in March. U.S. manufacturing is still declining, but at a slower pace than in February. Construction Spending fell 0.9%, beating consensus estimates of a 2% drop. While today's data continues to show a struggling economy, analysts are beginning to see signs of stabilization. Stocks moved modestly higher. Investors are now turning their focus to the single, most important report of the month, Friday's Non-farm Payrolls for March. The Unemployment Rate is expected to rise to 8.5% from last month's 8.1%. A larger increase could hurt stocks and help mortgage-backed securities.