Daily Market Update 11/30/12

Mortgage rates remained virtually unchanged Friday following the release of weaker than expected economic data.  The October Core PCE price index, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, rose 0.1%, and was a tame 1.6% higher than one year ago.  Personal Income was flat.  The Chicago PMI manufacturing index rose to 50.4, a bit below forecast.  Readings above 50.0 indicate expansion in the manufacturing sector.  Stocks  moved modestly higher.  The big news next week will be Friday's release of Non-farm Payrolls and the Unemployment Rate.  No other key data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 11/29/12

Rates were little changed Thursday as there were no major surprises in today's economic data.  Third quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was revised higher to 2.7% from 2.0%, which was slightly below the consensus forecast.  Most of the increase was due to a buildup of inventories, which means there will likely be a lower production of goods in future quarters.  Weekly Jobless Claims fell to 393,000, close to expectations.  The National Association of Realtors reported the October Pending Home Sales index rose 5.2%, far exceeding an expected increase of 1.0%, to the highest level since March 2007.  Results from today's 7-year Treasury auction will be released at 1:00 PM.

Daily Market Update 11/27/12

Rates held steady Tuesday as investors showed little reaction to newly released economic data.  This morning, October Durable Goods Orders were unchanged from September, beating expectations.  Consumer Confidence rose to 73.7, above forecast, to the highest reading since February 2008.  European officials reached an agreement to temporarily ease the debt burden on Greece.  Results from today's 2-year Treasury auction will be released at 1:00 PM.

Daily Market Update 11/26/12

Mortgage rates inched lower following the extended holiday weekend as a decline in stocks lifted mortgage-backed securities.  With no economic data due out today in the U.S., investors are focusing on events in Europe.  European officials are trying to reach an agreement on providing the next round of aid to Greece.  Meanwhile, Spanish elections revealed increased support in some regions for candidates who favor leaving the EU.  Durable Goods Orders will be released tomorrow at 8:30 AM.

Daily Market Update 11/20/12

Mortgage rates held steady Tuesday morning.  In economic news, October Housing Starts increased by 4% to an annual rate of 894,000 units, well above forecast, to the highest level since July 2008.  Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will be speaking at 12:15 PM.  No other data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 11/15/12

Rates held steady Thursday as a batch of economic data had little impact on mortgage-backed securities' prices.  Weekly Jobless Claims spiked to 439,000, far above the consensus forecast of 380,000, as the distortions from Hurricane Sandy were much larger than expected.  The October Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.1%, matching expectations, and was 2.2% higher than one year ago.  The more closely-watched Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy components, increased 0.2%, above forecast.  The Empire State manufacturing index came in at -5.2, which was stronger than expected.  The Philly Fed manufacturing index came in at -10.7, far short of expectations.  Readings below 0.0 indicate contraction in the manufacturing sector.  No other key data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 11/14/12

Mortgage rates inched higher Wednesday in spite of the release of weaker than expected economic data.  The October Producer Price Index (PPI) fell 0.2%, as did the Core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy components.  Core PPI was 2.1% higher than one year ago, down from an annual rate of 3.0% earlier this year.  Retail Sales declined 0.3% last month, although government officials suggested that the data was distorted by Hurricane Sandy.  The Mortgage Bankers Association weekly purchase activity index rose 11.0%, while the refinancing activity index jumped 13.1%.  Average reported 30-year fixed rates fell to 3.52%, not including fees, a new record low.  Detailed minutes from the October 24 Fed meeting will be released at 2:00 PM.

Daily Market Update 11/13/12

Mortgage rates were little changed Tuesday in volatile trading.  Investors appear to be focused primarily on uncertainty over events in Europe and the looming "fiscal cliff" in the U.S.  No key economic data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 11/9/12

Rates were little changed Friday morning as mortgage-backed securities gave back a portion of yesterday's gains.  In economic news, October Import Prices rose 0.5%, above expectations.  Consumer Sentiment came in at 84.9, a 5-year high, beating forecast.  Next week, the Producer Price Index, Retail Sales, and minutes from last month's Fed meeting will be released on Wednesday, the Consumer Price Index will come out on Thursday, and Industrial Production on Friday.  No other key data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 11/8/12

Rates were little changed Thursday in light trading.  This morning, weekly Jobless Claims fell to 355,000, below the consensus forecast of 365,000, but the figures may have been distorted by the effects of Hurricane Sandy.  The September Trade Deficit declined more than expected to $41.5 billion, the lowest level since December 2010.  Despite widespread riots and protests, Greek leaders passed a series of austerity measures required to receive additional aid.  Results from today's 30-year Treasury auction will be released at 1:00 PM.

Daily Market Update 11/7/12

Mortgage rates inched lower Wednesday following the election results.  As expected, the Obama victory was positive for bonds and negative for stocks.  Separately, European Union forecasts for economic growth for the next two years were downgraded more than expected.  U.S. stocks moved sharply lower.  Results from today's 10-year Treasury auction will be released at 1:00 PM.

Daily Market Update 11/6/12

Rates faced upward pressure Tuesday as a rally in stocks pushed mortgage-backed securities lower.  No key economic data will be released today.  Results from today's 3-year Treasury auction will be released at 1:00 PM.  Investors are mainly focused on today's election.  The outcome will have profound impact on the mortgage and housing industries, affecting the regulatory environment, the future of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and FHA, Federal Reserve and Treasury leadership, and mortgage interest rates.  With the two major candidates in a statistical tie, voter turnout will likely determine the outcome.  Please vote (or don't complain about the winner)!

Daily Market Update 11/5/12

Mortgage rates inched lower Monday ahead of tomorrow's election.  Although the polls indicate a statistical dead heat, investors appear to be positioning themselves for an Obama victory and a divided Congress, an outcome which is seen as positive for bonds.  Stocks moved lower.  In economic news, the Institute for Supply Management services index fell to 54.2, a bit lower than expected.  No other key data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 11/2/12

Mortgage rates were little changed Friday following this morning's closely watched Employment Report.  After a brief sell off, mortgage-backed securities recovered from early losses.  The economy added 171,000 jobs in October, well above the consensus forecast of 125,000.  The Unemployment Rate increased to 7.9%, in line with expectations, due to an increase in the size of the labor force.  Average Hourly Earnings, a proxy for wage growth, was unchanged from September, which was weaker than expected.  Overall, the employment data was stronger than forecast.  Separately, Factory Orders rose 4.8% last month, slightly below expectations.  No other key data will be released today.  Next week's presidential election will likely overshadow all other economic news.

Daily Market Update 11/1/12

Rates inched higher Thursday as a rally in stocks pressured mortgage-backed securities.  This morning, payroll firm ADP projected an increase of 158,000 private sector jobs in October, slightly above forecast.  Third quarter Productivity rose 1.9%, close to expectations.  Weekly Jobless Claims fell to 363,000, below the consensus of 370,000.  The Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index came in at 51.7.  Readings above 50.0 indicate expansion in the manufacturing sector of the economy.  Consumer Confidence rose to 72.2, a bit less than expected.  Investors are now focusing on tomorrow's release of the October Employment Report, which comes out at 8:30 AM.  No other data will be released today.