Daily Market Update 7/31/13

Mortgage rates moved higher Wednesday following the release of stronger than expected economic data.  This morning, preliminary second quarter GDP figures indicated the economy grew at a 1.7% annual rate, above the consensus forecast of 1.1%.  First quarter GDP was revised lower, however, resulting in first half growth of 1.4%.  Separately, payrolls firm ADP estimated private sector job growth of 200,000 in July, beating expectations.  The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index rose to 52.3, a bit less than expected.  Readings above 50.0 indicate expansion in Midwest manufacturing activity.  The Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve wraps up its two-day meeting to discuss monetary policy this afternoon.  The Fed will release a statement at 2:00 PM.  Investors will be watching closely for clues about the timing of the Fed's anticipated tapering of bond purchases known as "quantitative easing".

Daily Market Update 7/30/13

Mortgage rates held steady Tuesday in relatively quiet trading ahead of tomorrow's Fed announcement.  In economic news, the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index rose 2.4% in May and was an astounding 12.2% higher than one year ago, the largest annual increase since March 2006.  Consumer Confidence fell to 80.3, slightly below expectations.  No other key data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 7/29/13

Mortgage rates were little changed Monday as investors braced for a potentially volatile week.  In economic news, Pending Home Sales fell 0.4% in June, reflecting higher mortgage rates.  A decrease of 1.0% had been expected.  The Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve will begin its scheduled two-day meeting tomorrow to discuss monetary policy.  The Fed will release a statement Wednesday afternoon.  While no rate changes are expected, investors will be looking for clues about the timing of anticipated tapering of purchases of Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities by the Fed, otherwise known as "quantitative easing".  Also Wednesday, preliminary second quarter GDP figures will be released.  The Employment Report, the most closely-watched economic data of the month, will come out on Friday.

Daily Market Update 7/26/13

Rates moved lower Friday as a sell-off in stocks boosted mortgage-backed securities.  This morning, Consumer Sentiment rose to 85.1, beating expectations.  No other key data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 7/25/13

Mortgage rates inched higher Thursday on stronger than expected economic data.  June Durable Goods Orders jumped 4.2%, well above the consensus forecast of 2.0%.  Most of the increase came from aircraft orders, however, which are extremely volatile month-to-month.  Weekly Jobless Claims rose to 343,000, slightly more than expected.  Stocks moved lower.  Results from today's 7-year Treasury auction will be released at 1:00 PM.

Daily Market Update 7/24/13

Rates inched higher Wednesday following the release of stronger than expected manufacturing data in Europe and New Home Sales in the U.S.  New Home Sales jumped 8.3% in June to 497,000 annual units, a five-year high.  Separately, the Mortgage Bankers Association weekly purchase activity index fell by 2%, while the weekly refinance activity index declined by 1%.  Average reported conventional 30-year fixed rates fell to 4.58%, not including fees.  Results from today's 5-year Treasury auction will be released at 1:00 PM.

Daily Market Update 7/23/13

Mortgage rates were little changed Tuesday.  No key economic data will be released today.  Results from today's 2-year Treasury auction will come out at 1:00 PM.

Daily Market Update 7/22/13

Rates held steady Monday in quiet trading.  This morning, the National Association of Realtors reported that June Existing Home Sales fell unexpectedly by 1.2% to 5.08 million annual units.  An increase to 5.25 million unit sales had been forecast.  No other key data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 7/19/13

Rates were little changed Friday as mortgage-backed securities recovered most of yesterday afternoon's losses.  Stocks moved modestly lower.  No key economic data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 7/18/13

Mortgage rates faced upward pressure Wednesday on mixed economic data.  Weekly Jobless Claims fell to 334,000, well below forecast, although the data may have been distorted by the July Fourth holiday.  The Philly Fed Index jumped to 19.8, far above expectations.  Readings above zero indicate expansion in the manufacturing sector in the Philadelphia region.  Leading Indicators were flat, which was a bit lower than expected.  The Mortgage Bankers Association weekly purchase activity index rose by 1%, while the refinance activity index declined by 4%.  Average reported conventional 30-year fixed rates were unchanged, at 4.68%, not including fees.  Fed Chairman Bernanke will be speaking before Congress for a second day.  No other key data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 7/17/13

Rates inched lower following weaker than expected economic data and Fed Chairman Bernanke's testimony before Congress.  Bernanke emphasized that a highly accommodative monetary policy will remain appropriate for a long time, and that the Fed's timeline to taper its bond purchase program depends on the future performance of the economy.  In economic news, June Housing Starts declined by 10% to 836,000 annual units, far below expectations.  Building Permits, a leading indicator, fell 8%.  The Beige Book, a survey of economic activity by the 12 regional Fed banks, will be released at 2:00 PM.

Daily Market Update 7/16/13

Mortgage rates inched lower Tuesday reflecting market improvement late Monday.  In economic news, the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.5%, slightly above the consensus forecast, and was 1.8% higher than one year ago.  Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy components, increased 0.2%, in line with expectations.  Industrial Production rose 0.3%, matching forecast.  Investors are now looking ahead to tomorrow's testimony from Fed Chairman Benanke at 10:00 AM.  No other key data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 7/15/13

Mortgage rates were little changed Monday following the release of mixed economic data.  This morning, the Empire State Index rose to 9.5, well above forecast.  Readings above zero indicate expansion in the manufacturing sector in the region.  June Retail Sales increased 0.4%, far below expectations.  Also this morning, ratings agency Fitch lowered the sovereign credit rating of France.  No other key data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 7/10/13

Mortgage rates were little changed Wednesday ahead of the 2:00 PM release of Minutes from last month's Fed meeting.  Results from today's 10-year Treasury auction will come out at 1:00 PM.  The Mortgage Bankers Association weekly purchase activity index fell by 3.1%, while the refinance activity index dropped by 4.4%.  Average reported 30-year fixed rates jumped to 4.68%, not including fees.  Fed Chairman Bernanke will be speaking today at the National Bureau of Economic Research in Boston at 4:10 PM.

Daily Market Update 7/9/13

Rates inched lower Tuesday as mortgage-backed securities continued to recover from Friday's huge losses.  No key economic data will be released today.  Results from today's 3-year Treasury auction will come out at 1:00 PM.

Daily Market Update 7/8/13

Mortgage rates stabilized Monday following Friday's spike that resulted from a stronger than expected Employment Report.  Rates have now moved to their highest levels in over two years.  No key economic data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 7/3/13

Mortgage rates held steady Wednesday following a flurry of economic data and global news.  This morning, payroll firm ADP estimated private sector job growth of 188,000 in June, well above expectations.  Weekly Jobless Claims fell to 343,000, close to forecast.  The Institute for Supply Management services index declined unexpectedly to 52.2.  Readings above 50.0 indicate expansion in the services sector of the economy.  The Mortgage Bankers Association weekly purchase activity index fell by 3.1%, while the refinancing activity index declined by 15.6%.  Average reported 30-year fixed rates jumped to 4.58% not including fees, the highest level since July 2011.  Turmoil in Egypt created a flight to safety, boosting mortgage-backed securities (MBS), and causing oil prices to rise above $100 per barrel for the first time since September.  Reports that Portugal is having trouble gaining support for its austerity program raised concerns about European countries with debt problems.  Stocks moved lower.  MBS markets will close at 2:00 PM today and be closed tomorrow in observance of Independence Day.  The closely watched Employment Report for June will be released on Friday at 8:30 AM.

Daily Market Update 7/2/13

Mortgage rates were little changed Tuesday in relatively quiet trading.  In economic news, Factory Orders rose 2.1% in May, slightly above forecast.  No other key data will be released today.  This week's big news will be Friday's Employment Report.  Also this week, the European Central Bank (ECB) will be meeting on Thursday.