Daily Market Update 11/30/09

Mortgage rates held steady Monday, matching their lowest levels of the year. This morning, the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index rose to 56.1, above forecast, to the highest level since August 2008. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in manufacturing. Stocks moved modestly higher. Investors will be closely watching this Friday's Employment Report for November. No other economic data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 11/25/09

Mortgage rates were unchanged Wednesday as investors shrugged off stronger than expected economic data. Weekly Jobless Claims fell to 466,000, well below the consensus forecast of 500,000, and the lowest level since September 2008. October Personal Income matched expectations with a 0.2% increase. New Home Sales rose to an annual rate of 430,000, well above forecast. Durable Goods Orders was the weakest report, falling -0.6%. The Treasury will auction 7-year notes at 1:00 PM. The mortgage-backed securities market will close early today at 2:00 PM et, and will reopen Friday.

Daily Market Update 11/24/09

Rates inched lower Tuesday following a downward revision of third quarter GDP. The economy grew at a 2.8% rate last quarter, down from earlier estimates of 3.5%. Stronger than average demand for this afternoon's 5-year Treasury auction helped lift mortgage-backed securities markets. Minutes from the November 4th Fed meeting revealed upwardly revised forecasts for economic growth, but a widely held view that unemployment will remain high for several years. Tomorrow, five economic reports will be released ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday.

Daily Market Update 11/23/09

Mortgage rates were little changed Monday as stock prices surged on positive housing data. Existing Homes Sales rose 10.1% in October to the highest level since February 2007, easily beating forecast, as buyers rushed to take advantage of the $8,000 first-time homebuyer tax credit. The national median home price fell 7.1% from October 2008. Revised third quarter GDP figures and minutes from last month's Fed meeting will be released tomorrow. Durable Goods Orders will come out Wednesday. No other data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 11/19/09

Rates remained unchanged Thursday. In economic news, weekly Jobless Claims came in at 505,000, close to expectations, while Continuing Jobless Claims fell to the lowest level since mid-March. The trend indicates slow improvement in the labor market. Leading Indicators rose 0.3%, a bit below forecast. Stocks fell sharply. No other economic data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 11/18/09

Mortgage rates were little changed Wednesday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October came in a bit higher than expected, having increased 0.3% from September. The more closely watched "core" CPI, which excludes food and energy components, rose 0.2% and was a tame 1.7% higher than one year ago. The data continued to show that inflation is not a major concern in the near-term. October Housing Starts dropped 11% to 529,000, far below the consensus forecast of 600,000. Building Permits, a leading indicator, declined 4%. The Mortgage Bankers Association weekly purchase activity index fell by 8% to the lowest level in 12 years. No other economic data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 11/17/09

Mortgage rates held steady Tuesday as average 30-year fixed rates remained below 5%. This morning, the October Producer Price Index rose 0.3%, less than expected, and was down -1.9% from one year ago. Industrial Production rose 0.1%, well below forecast. The Consumer Price Index will be released tomorrow.

Daily Market Update 11/12/09

Mortgage rates held steady Thursday as weekly Jobless Claims came in close to expectations. Today's Treasury auction of 30-year bonds drew weak demand, but mortgage-backed securities markets showed little reaction. The Mortgage Bankers Association weekly purchase activity index fell by 12%, to the lowest level since December 2000. No major economic data will be released until next week, beginning Monday with October Retail Sales, followed by the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Industrial Production Tuesday, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) Wednesday.

Daily Market Update 11/10/09

Mortgage rates continued moving lower Tuesday. The Treasury will auction $25 billion of 10-year notes this afternoon at 1:00 PM et. Median US home prices fell 11.2% in the third quarter from one year earlier according to the National Association of Realtors. The median price in the Louisville Metropolitan Area rose 0.1% over the same period. No economic data will be released today. The market will be closed tomorrow.

Daily Market Update 11/9/09

Rates were little changed Monday, as no major economic data will be released this week. Treasury auctions of 3- and 10-year notes and 30-year bonds taking place Monday, Tuesday, and Thursday, respectively, will likely have the greatest impact on mortgage-backed securities. Average 30-year fixed rates have again slipped below 5%. Last Friday the $8,000 first-time homebuyer tax credit was extended to include homes under contract by 4/30/10 and closed by 6/30/10. The program was expanded to include a maximum $6,500 credit to non-first-time buyers who have been in their current homes for at least 5 years. Financial markets will be closed Wednesday in observance of Veteran's Day.

Daily Market Update 11/6/09

Rates moved lower Friday following weaker than expected jobs data. The Unemployment Rate rose to 10.2% in October from 9.8% in September, the highest level since April 1983. The economy lost 190,000 jobs last month, and revisions to prior months added another 90,000 to the previously announced figures. On a positive note, average hourly earnings, a proxy for wage growth, rose a bit more than forecast. No other data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 11/5/09

Mortgage rates held steady Thursday as third quarter Productivity increased 9.5%, far above the consensus forecast. The data confirmed that businesses are getting more work out of existing employees, easing labor unit costs. Weekly Jobless Claims fell to 512,000, below expectations, and to the lowest level since January 3. The Senate passed a bill extending the $8,000 first-time homebuyer tax credit, making it applicable to contracts entered into by April 30, 2010, and closed by June 30, 2010. The bill includes a new $6,500 tax credit to homebuyers who have owned their current homes for at least 5 years, subject to income limits. The bill now moves to the House, where quick passage is expected. The Nonfarm Payrolls report for October will be released tomorrow at 8:30 AM.

Daily Market Update 11/4/09

Rates inched higher Wednesday ahead of this afternoon's Fed announcement. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve will release a statement at 2:15 PM, and while no rate change is expected, investors will be looking for some indication about when the Fed will begin tightening monetary policy. In economic news, the Institute for Supply Management services index fell unexpectedly in October. No other data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 11/3/09

Mortgage rates held steady Tuesday. In economic news, Factory Orders rose 0.9% last month, slightly above forecast. Investors have now turned their focus to tomorrow's FOMC meeting and Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls report. The mortgage-backed securities market is likely to remain volatile for rest of the week. No other economic data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 11/02/09

Mortgage rates were little changed Monday in spite of the release of stronger than expected economic data. The Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index rose to 55.7 last month from 52.6 in September. A reading above 50.0 indicates expansion. Pending Home Sales rose for the eighth straight month in October as buyers rushed to take advantage of the $8,000 first time homebuyer tax credit due to expire November 30. An extension of the credit by Congress appears likely, but has not yet been finalized. The Fed begins a two day FOMC meeting tomorrow, and while no rate change is expected, investors will be looking for clues as to when and how the Fed may begin unwinding the stimulus they've pumped into the economy. With unemployment at 9.8% and inflation under control in the near term, Fed officials may not be inclined to rush the process.