Daily Market Update 9/30/11

Rates moved lower Friday as a decline in the stock market boosted mortgage-backed securities.  In economic news, the Core PCE, one of the Fed's preferred measures of inflation, rose 0.1% in August, a bit less than expected.  Personal Income fell 0.1%, below the consensus forecast for an increase of 0.1%.  The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index rose to 60.4, beating expectations.  Consumer Sentiment came in at 59.4, above forecast.  Next week, the big economic news will be Friday's Employment Report.  No other key data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 9/29/11

Mortgage rates were little changed Thursday despite the release of stronger than expected economic data and a stock market rally.  The final reading for second quarter GDP was revised higher to 1.3% from 1.0%.  Weekly Jobless Claims fell to 391,000, well below the consensus forecast of 420,000, to the lowest level since April 1.  August Pending Home Sales declined 1.3%, slightly less than expected.  Earlier today, Germany passed a vote to provide increased aid to struggling European nations.  Results from today's 7-year Treasury auction will be released at 1:00 PM.

Daily Market Update 9/28/11

Mortgage rates have risen for the past three days after reaching historic lows last week.  Strength in stock markets resulting from renewed optimism over Europe has hurt bonds and mortgage-backed securities.  This morning, August Durable Goods Orders declined 0.1%, which was slightly below the consensus forecast.  The Mortgage Bankers Association weekly purchase activity index rose 2.6%, while the refinancing activity index increased by 11.2%.  Average reported 30-year fixed rates fell to 4.25%, not including fees.  Results from today's 5-year Treasury auction will be released at 1:00 PM.

Daily Market Update 9/22/11

Rates moved lower Thursday as sharp declines in global stock markets boosted mortgage-backed securities.  Yesterday, the Fed announced plans to shift $400 billion of Treasury holdings to long-term from short-term securities in an effort to drive down long-term rates.  The Fed statement indicated an uncertain economic outlook by the central bank, resulting in a sharp sell-off of stocks.  Rates on 30-year fixed mortgages reached an all-time low this morning.  In economic news, weekly Jobless Claims fell to 423,000, above forecast.  Leading Indicators rose 0.3%, a bit more than expected.  No other key data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 9/21/11

Rates held steady Wednesday in quiet trading ahead of the Fed meeting.  Fed officials are divided about whether to ease monetary policy further to stimulate the economy.  Many investors believe that the Fed will announce a plan to decrease its quantity of short-term Treasury holdings and increase its long-term holdings.  The highly anticipated announcement will take place at 2:15 PM.  In economic news, August Existing Home Sales jumped 7.7%, well above expectations, to an annual rate of 5.03 million units.  The Mortgage Bankers Association weekly purchase activity index fell by 4.7%, while the refinancing activity index rose by 2.2%.  Average reported 30-year fixed rates remained unchanged at 4.29%, not including fees.

Daily Market Update 9/20/11

Rates were little changed Tuesday as investors await tomorrow's FOMC meeting of the Fed.  In economic news, August Housing Starts declined 5%, slightly more than forecast.  Building Permits, a leading indicator, rose 3%, better than expected.  Yesterday, Edward DeMarco, acting director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) which oversees Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, announced that the two agencies will likely raise guarantee fees in 2012 through "a series of periodic, gradual price increases".  The move is designed to reduce long-term exposure to credit risk by taxpayers, but comes at a time when the Obama Administration is attempting to encourage more borrowers to take advantage of low mortgage rates.  Separately, some investors are expecting the Fed to announce "Operation Twist" following tomorrow's FOMC meeting.  If enacted, the Fed would re-allocate a portion of its $1.65 trillion U.S. Treasury portfolio to increase long-term bond holdings and reduce short-term holdings in an effort to push long-term rates lower.  Analysts are divided on the likely effectiveness of such a move.  No other key data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 9/19/11

Mortgage rates inched lower Monday as concerns about European debt hurt stock markets and lifted mortgage-backed securities.  No economic data will be released today.  The Federal Open Market Committee of the Fed will meet on Wednesday.

Daily Market Update 9/16/11

Rates were little changed Friday.  Mortgage-backed securities recovered from an initial sell-off after stocks pared early gains.  Consumer Sentiment rose to 57.8, beating expectations.  The big event next week will be Wednesday's FOMC meeting of the Fed.  No rate changes are expected, but the Fed may announce plans to boost the economy.  No other key data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 9/15/11

Mortgage rates moved modestly higher Thursday following the release of a wide range of economic data.  The August Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4%, above the consensus forecast of 0.2%, and was 3.8% higher than one year ago.  Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy components, increased 0.2%, matching expectations, and rose 2.0% year-over-year.  Weekly Jobless Claims jumped to 428,000, well above forecast, but weather-related issues may have inflated the results.  Industrial Production rose 0.2%.  An increase of 0.1% had been expected.  The Philly Fed Index, a survey of manufacturing activity in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Delaware, came in at -17.5.  Readings below zero indicate contraction in the manufacturing sector.  In other news, five major central banks, including the ECB and U.S. Federal Reserve, will provide lending for European banks seeking short-term liquidity.  The announcement boosted stocks, hurting bonds and mortgage-backed securities.  No other key data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 9/14/11

Rates were little changed Wednesday in volatile trading.  In economic news, the August Producer Price Index (PPI) was unchanged, matching expectations, and was 6.5% higher than one year ago.  Core PPI, which excludes food and energy components, rose 0.1%, slightly below forecast.  Retail Sales were flat in August.  An increase of 0.2% had been expected.  The Mortgage Bankers Association weekly purchase activity index rose by 7%, while the refinancing activity index increased by 6%.  Average reported 30-year fixed rates fell to 4.17%, not including fees.  Results from today's 30-year Treasury auction will be released at 1:00 PM.

Daily Market Update 8/13/11

Rates inched higher Tuesday in quiet trading.  August Import Prices fell 0.4% from July led by a decline in oil prices.  Excluding oil, Import Prices rose 0.3%.  Results from today's 10-year Treasury auction will be released at 1:00 PM.

Daily Market Update 9/12/11

Mortgage rates remained near 60-year lows Monday.  Concerns about the increased likelihood of default by Greece hurt global stock markets.  Bank of America announced plans to eliminate 30,000 jobs over the next three years.  No key economic data will be released today.  Results from today's 3-year Treasury auction will be released at 1:00 PM.

Daily Market Update 9/8/11

Rates were little changed Thursday ahead of this evening's much-anticipated jobs plan speech by President Obama.  In economic news, weekly Jobless Claims rose to 414,000, above forecast.  The July Trade Deficit was smaller than expected.  The European Central Bank (ECB) made no change in rates.  Stocks were mixed.  Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will be speaking at 1:00 PM.  No other key data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 9/7/11

Rates moved higher Wednesday as a rally in global stock markets hurt bonds and mortgage-backed securities.  Investor concerns about Europe eased somewhat following the release of austerity measures by Italy and Greece.  The Mortgage Bankers Association weekly purchase activity index rose 0.2%, while the refinancing activity index declined by 6.3%.  Average reported 30-year fixed rates fell to 4.23%, not including fees.  The Fed's Beige Book, a survey of economic conditions by the twelve regional Federal Reserve Banks, will be released at 2:00 PM.

Daily Market Update 9/6/11

Mortgage rates were little changed Tuesday in quiet trading.  Stocks fell sharply on growing concerns that the economy may be moving closer to a recession.  In economic news, the Institute for Supply Management services index rose unexpectedly to 53.3 from 52.7.  Readings above 50.0 indicate growth in the services sector of the economy.  No other key data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 9/2/11

Rates inched lower Friday following the release of weaker than expected employment data.  The U.S. economy added no net jobs in August, and the figures for June and July were revised lower by 58,000.  The unemployment rate remained at 9.1%.  Average Hourly Earnings, a proxy for wage growth, declined unexpectedly.  Stocks fell sharply.  In addition, investors grew more concerned about the health of European banks and the willingness of Italy's political leaders to implement austerity measures.  Next week will be relatively quiet in terms of new economic data.  Markets will be closed on Monday in observance of Labor Day.

Daily Market Update 9/1/11

Rates held steady Thursday in another day of volatile trading.  In economic news, weekly Jobless Claims fell to 409,000, close to forecast.  Second quarter Productivity declined by 0.7%, a bit lower than expected.  Construction Spending fell 1.3% in July, below expectations.  The Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index came in at 50.6.  Readings above 50.0 indicate expansion in the manufacturing sector of the economy.  No other key data will be released today.