Daily Market Update 3/28/13

Mortgage rates held steady in quiet trading Thursday following the release of weaker than expected economic data.  This morning, weekly Jobless Claims rose to 357,000, above the consensus forecast of 340,000.  Fourth quarter GDP was revised higher to 0.4%, just short of expectations.  The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index fell to 52.4.  Readings above 50.0 indicate expansion in Midwest manufacturing.  Results from today's 7-year Treasury auction will be released at 1:00 PM.

Daily Market Update 3/27/13

Rates inched lower Wednesday as stocks fell following weaker than expected home sales and renewed concerns about Italy.  The vote in recent Italian elections was split between three parties, and they have been unable to form a coalition government, making recovery from its debt problems even more challenging.  In the U.S., the National Association of Realtors reported that the Pending Home Sales index fell 0.4%, far below expectations.  Lack of adequate inventory was cited as a key reason for the decline.  Results from today's 5-year Treasury auction will be released at 1:00 PM.

Daily Market Update 3/26/13

Mortgage rates held steady Tuesday following the release of mixed economic data.  February Durable Goods Orders jumped 5.7%, beating forecast, but excluding volatile aircraft orders the results fell short of expectations.  The January S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index rose 8.1% from one year ago, the largest annual increase since 2006.  Consumer Confidence slipped to 59.7.  A reading of 68.0 had been expected.  New Home Sales fell to 411,000 annual units, slightly below the consensus forecast.  Stocks moved higher.  Results from today's 2-year Treasury auction will be released at 1:00 PM.

Daily Market Update 3/25/13

Rates were little changed Monday as mortgage-backed securities recovered from early losses.  Stocks initially rallied on news that a bank bailout deal had been reached between Cypress and the ECB, but optimism quickly faded as details of the plan emerged.  Deposits up to 100,000 euros will be spared any tax assessment, while deposits above that amount will be taxed up to 40%.  Many wealthy Russian depositors will be affected.  Political uncertainty in Italy also contributed to investor sentiment as stocks turned sharply lower.  No key economic data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 3/22/13

Rates were little changed Friday as investors remained focused on events in Europe.  This morning the ECB warned that it will cut off emergency funding for banks in Cypress on Monday if no deal is reached.  It now appears possible that Cyprus will leave the European Union.  Next week's key economic data includes the release of Durable Goods Orders on Tuesday, final fourth quarter GDP figures on Thursday, and Core PCE, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, on Friday.  No key data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 3/21/13

Mortgage rates held steady Thursday after moving higher late Wednesday.  Yesterday the Fed indicated it will continue purchasing $85 billion worth of Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities each month until the labor market improves significantly.  This morning, weekly Jobless Claims rose to 336,000, which was lower than expected.  Existing Home Sales increased to 4.98 million annual units, slightly below forecast.  The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) said home prices rose 6.5% from January 2012 to January 2013, the largest annual increase since 2006.  Leading Indicators increased 0.5%, in line with expectations.  In Europe, the European Central Bank's Governing Council said Cypress has until Monday to agree to an acceptable alternative plan in order to continue receiving emergency bailout funds and avoid bankruptcy.  Global financial markets remained volatile.  No other key data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 3/19/13

Mortgage rates were little changed Tuesday as the Fed began its two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting to discuss monetary policy.  An announcement by the Fed will be made tomorrow afternoon.  In economic news, February Housing Starts rose by 1.0% to an annual rate of 917,000 units, beating expectations.  Building Permits jumped 5% to the highest level since June 2008.  A vote on the proposal to tax bank deposits in Cypress as a condition for a bank bailout by the EU is scheduled for later today, although it may be postponed due to public outcry.  No other key economic data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 3/18/13

Rates moved lower Monday as uncertainty in Europe hurt stocks and boosted mortgage-backed securities.  This morning the EU announced it will provide a 10 billion euro bailout to Cypress only if private banks in Cypress tax deposits at a 6.75% to 10% rate, depending on account size.  The bank tax is hugely unpopular, and the government has postponed a vote until tomorrow to try to develop a more acceptable plan.  Without the bailout Cyprus faces a high risk of default.  No key economic data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 3/15/13

Mortgage rates inched lower Friday despite stronger than expected inflation data.  The January Consumer Price Index (CPI) jumped 0.7%, above the consensus 0.5%, and was 2.0% higher than one year ago.  Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy components, increased 0.2%, matching forecast.  February Industrial Production rose 0.7%, above the consensus of 0.5%.  Capacity Utilization reached its highest level since March 2008.  Consumer Sentiment fell unexpectedly to 71.8, the lowest reading since December 2011.  Stocks moved lower.  Next week's big event will be the two day FOMC meeting of the Fed which wraps up on Wednesday.  No rate changes are expected, but investors will be watching closely for clues about the future direction of the current "Quantitative Easing" program in which the Fed is purchasing long-term Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities to hold down interest rates.  No other key economic data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 3/13/13

Mortgage rates held steady Wednesday following the release of stronger than expected economic data.  February Retail Sales rose 1.1%, far above forecast.  Some economists had expected the increased payroll tax and higher gas prices to slow sales activity, but today's data contradicted that view.  Import Prices increased 1.1% in February, but were lower than one year ago.  Stocks were little changed.  Results from today's 10-year Treasury auction will be released at 1:00 PM.

Daily Market Update 3/8/13

Rates moved higher Friday following the release of stronger than expected employment data.  Against a consensus forecast of 170,000, the economy added 236,000 jobs in February.  The Unemployment Rate fell to 7.7% from 7.9%, to the lowest level since December 2008.  Average Hourly Earnings rose 0.2%.  Stocks rallied on the news.  No other key data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 3/7/13

Rates inched higher Thursday as an improving outlook for the labor market pushed stocks higher and hurt mortgage-backed securities.  Weekly Jobless Claims fell to 340,000, below the consensus forecast of 350,000.  The January Trade Deficit rose to $44.4 billion, a bit higher than expected.  Fourth quarter Productivity was revised lower to -1.9%.  Non-farm Payrolls and the February Unemployment Rate will be released tomorrow at 8:30 AM.

Daily Market Update 3/6/13

Rates faced upward pressure Wednesday as stocks moved higher on stronger than expected economic data.  This morning, payroll firm ADP estimated private sector job growth of 198,000 in February, beating forecast.  Factory Orders fell by 2.0%, matching expectations.  The Mortgage Bankers Association weekly purchase activity index jumped 15%, while the refinancing activity index increased 14.8%.  Average reported 30-year fixed rates fell to 3.70% plus 0.39 points.  The Fed's Beige Book, a survey of economic activity by the 12 regional Federal Reserve Banks, will be released at 1:00 PM.

Daily Market Update 3/5/13

Mortgage rates were little changed Tuesday as a stock market rally carried the Dow Jones Industrial Average to a new record high.  In economic news, the Institute for Supply Management Services Index rose to 56.0, beating expectations.  Readings above 50.0 indicate expansion in the services sector.  The big report this week will be Friday's release of February Employment data.

Daily Market Update 3/4/13

Mortgage rates were mostly unchanged Monday in quiet trading.  No economic data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 3/1/13

Mortgage rates were little changed Friday on mixed economic data.  January Personal Income declined by 3.6%, compared to a consensus forecast of -2.0%.  Core PCE price index, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, rose 0.1%, a bit less than expected.  The Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index came in at 54.2, beating expectations.  Readings above 50.0 indicate expansion in manufacturing.  Consumer Sentiment rose to 77.6 from 76.3, while Construction Spending fell by 2.1%.  Stocks moved sharply lower as investors braced for government spending cuts resulting from "Sequestration".  No other data will be released today.