Daily Market Update 6/28/13

Mortgage rates faced upward pressure Friday in volatile trading.  Today is the last day of the quarter, when investment funds make final adjustments to their portfolios, increasing volatility.  In economic news, the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index fell to 51.6, well below forecast.  Readings above 50.0 indicate expansion in the Midwest manufacturing sector.  Consumer Sentiment rose to 84.1, beating expectations.  Stocks moved sharply lower.  No other key data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 6/27/13

Rates inched lower Thursday as a number of Fed officials suggested that investors have overreacted to the most recent Fed announcement.  Today's economic data was generally better than expected.  The May Core PCE price index, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, rose 0.1% from April, matching forecast, and was a tame 1.1% higher than one year ago.  Weekly Jobless Claims declined to 346,000, in line with expectations.  Pending Home Sales jumped 6.7% in May to the highest level in 6 years.  Stocks moved higher.  Freddie Mac reported that average mortgage rates rose last week to 4.46% from 3.93%, the largest weekly increase in 26 years.  Results from today's 7-year Treasury auction will be released at 1:00 PM.

Daily Market Update 6/26/13

Mortgage rates inched lower Wednesday following the release of weaker than expected GDP data.  First quarter Gross Domestic Product was revised lower to 1.8% from 2.4%.  Slower economic growth could delay the Fed's tapering of bond purchases.  Stocks moved higher.  Results from today's 5-year Treasury auction will be released at 1:00 PM.

Daily Market Update 6/25/13

Despite stronger than expected economic data, mortgage-backed securities were little changed Tuesday in another day of volatile trading.  This morning, the April S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index rose a record 2.5% from March.  It was 12% higher than one year ago, which was the largest annual increase since 2006.  Durable Goods Orders rose 3.6%, beating expectations.  Consumer Confidence jumped to 81.4, far above forecast, to the highest reading since January 2008.  New Home Sales increased to 476,000 annual units, a bit higher than expected.  No other key data will be released today.

Daily Market Update

Mortgage rates continued climbing Monday as investors have dumped record levels of bonds and mortgage-backed securities this month.  30-year fixed rates have now risen by about 1.50% in the past two months and nearly 3/4% since last Wednesday's Fed announcement.  Stocks moved sharply lower.  No key economic data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 6/20/13

Rates have moved sharply higher since the release of yesterday's Fed statement.  If the economy performs as expected, the Fed plans to taper its bond purchases later this year and conclude the program by the middle of next year.  The statement noted that downside risks to the economy have diminished.  Any investors who were looking for signs that tapering would be farther away were very disappointed.  Investors have continued to sell both stocks and bonds this morning.  In other economic news, weekly Jobless Claims jumped to 354,000, well above expectations.  Existing Home Sales rose to 5.18 million annual units, beating forecast.  Leading Indicators increased by 0.1%, a bit less than expected.  The Philly Fed Index, a survey of manufacturers in the region, surged to 12.5.  Readings above zero indicate expansion in the manufacturing sector.  No other key economic data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 6/19/13

Mortgage rates were little changed Wednesday ahead of this afternoon's Fed announcement.  No rate changes are expected, but investors want to know when the Fed will begin tapering its bond purchase program known as "quantitative easing", as well as the Fed's outlook for the economy.  The Fed statement will come out at 2:00 PM, followed by a press conference at 2:30.  No key economic data will be released today.  The Mortgage Bankers Association weekly purchase activity index fell by 4%, while the refinance activity index declined by 3%.  Average reported 30-year fixed rates rose to 4.17%, plus 0.41 "points".

Daily Market Update 6/18/13

Rates faced upward pressure Tuesday as the Fed began its two-day FOMC meeting to discuss monetary policy.  This morning, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.1% in May, a bit lower than expected, and was a tame 1.4% higher than one year ago.  Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy components, increased 0.2%, matching forecast.  May Housing Starts rose 7% to an annual rate of 914,000, below expectations.  Stocks moved higher.  No other key data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 6/17/13

Rates inched higher Monday following an article in the Financial Times suggesting the Fed will announce a move to begin tapering purchases of mortgage-backed securities after its Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Wednesday.  Uncertainty over the future of the Fed's "quantitative easing" policy has roiled financial markets in recent weeks.  No key economic data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 6/7/13

Mortgage rates faced upward pressure Friday in extremely volatile trading following release of the May Employment Report.  The economy added 175,000 jobs last month, slightly above forecast.  The Unemployment Rate rose to 7.6%, but this was due to an increase in the number of people entering the workforce.  Average Hourly Earnings, a proxy for wage growth, was unchanged from April, below expectations.  In total, the figures came in close to the consensus forecast, but investors were positioned for weaker data.  Stocks moved higher, hurting mortgage-backed securities.  No other key data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 6/5/13

Mortgage rates held steady Wednesday following the release of weaker than expected economic data.  Payroll firm ADP forecast private sector job growth of 135,000 in May, below the consensus of 170,000.  First quarter Productivity matched expectations.  Factory Orders rose by 1.0%, a bit less than expected.  The Fed's Beige Book, a survey of economic activity by the 12 regional Federal Reserve Banks, will be released at 2:00 PM.

Daily Market Update 6/4/13

Rates inched higher Tuesday in volatile trading ahead of key employment data due out later this week.  The April Trade Deficit rose to $40.3 billion, a bit below expectations.  Tomorrow, payrolls firm ADP will release its estimate of private jobs growth in May, weekly Jobless Claims will be reported on Thursday, and the Employment Report for May will be released on Friday.  No other key data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 6/3/13

Rates were little changed Monday in another day of volatile trading.  Mortgage-backed securities opened lower, but recovered early losses following the release of weaker than expected economic data.  Construction Spending rose by 0.4% in April, below the consensus forecast of +1.0%.  The Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index declined to 49.0, the first negative reading in six months.  Readings below 50.0 indicate contraction in the manufacturing sector.  No other key economic data will be released today.