Daily Market Update 1/30/09

Mortgage rates were steady to slightly lower Wednesday in light trading. In economic news, the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, a measure of manufacturing activity, jumped to 60, well above the consensus forecast of 55. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector. The mortgage-backed securities (MBS) market will close early tomorrow in observance of the New Year's holiday. Next week may be volatile, with several key reports due to be released, beginning with the ISM manufacturing index on Monday, minutes from the December FOMC meeting of the Fed on Wednesday, and the Employment Report for December on Friday. No other data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 12/29/09

Rates held steady Tuesday ahead of this afternoon's 5-year Treasury auction. Consumer Confidence rose to 52.9 in December, from 50.6 last month, in line with expectations. The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, covering 20 major metropolitan areas, was unchanged in October following 4 consecutive monthly increases. Stocks moved modestly higher. No other economic data will be released today.

Daily Market Update

Rates moved higher Monday, driven by concerns over growing government debt and higher oil prices. The 30-year fixed Fannie Mae required net yield is now at the highest level since August 24. No economic data will be released today. although there will be a Treasury auction of 2-year notes this afternoon at 1:00 PM et.

Daily Market Update 12/23/09

Mortgage rates were little changed Wednesday following the release of weaker than expected economic data. Personal Income and Consumer Sentiment both rose in November, but fell short of forecast. New Home Sales declined sharply to 355,000 units, well below expectations, to a 7 month low. The Mortgage Bankers Association weekly purchase activity index fell 12%, while the refinancing activity index decreased by 10%. The Treasury will auction a record-tying $118 billion of 2-, 5-, and 7-year notes next week. No other data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 12/22/09

Mortgage rates rose again Tuesday, having now increased by about 3/8% since Friday. Following last week's Fed meeting, investors have given up hope that the Fed will extend its mortgage-backed securities (MBS) purchase program, causing MBS yields to rise. In economic news, third quarter GDP was revised down to 2.2%, far below the consensus forecast of 2.7%. Existing Home Sales increased 7.4% in November to the highest level since February 2007 as first-time homebuyers rushed to take advantage of the $8,000 tax credit that had been due to expire November 30. It has since been extended to include homes under contract by 4/30/2010 and closed by 6/30/2010. Stocks moved higher. No other data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 12/21/09

Rates moved higher Monday as a rally in the stock market has hurt mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries. Investors are also expressing concerns over swelling levels of government debt. The supply of marketable Treasury debt has risen by $1.37 trillion this year, a 24% increase. No economic data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 12/18/09

Rates were little changed Friday, having moved slightly lower for the week. No economic data will be released today. Next week's schedule includes final third quarter GDP figures and Existing Home Sales on Tuesday, Core PCE (the Fed's preferred measure of inflation) and Consumer Sentiment on Wednesday, and Durable Goods Orders Thursday. Sudden price movements can take place during the second half of December due to extremely light trading. The market will close early Thursday for the Christmas Holiday.

Daily Market Update 12/17/09

Rates moved lower Thursday as Weekly Jobless Claims rose unexpectedly and the dollar strengthened against most major currencies. Stocks declined. The Index of Leading Indicators rose 0.9%, beating the consensus forecast of +0.7%. No other economic data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 12/16/09

Mortgage rates were little changed Wednesday. The November Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose a tame 1.7% from one year ago, a bit lower than expected. Housing Starts increased 9% to 574,000, close to forecast. The Fed made no rate change, as expected, and gave no indication that rates will be increased any time soon.

Daily Market Update 12/15/09

Mortgage rates moved higher Tuesday following the release of the Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation data. The PPI rose 1.8% in November, doubling the consensus forecast of 0.9%. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy components, rose 0.5%, the largest increase since October 2008. Separately, Industrial Production increased 0.8%, above the consensus of 0.5%. Mortgage-backed securities markets are typically volatile in December due to light trading, so any movement tends to be exaggerated. Tomorrow, the Consumer Price Index will be released at 8:30 AM, and the Fed wraps up its two-day FOMC meeting at 2:15 PM. No other data will be released today.

Daily Market Update

Rates were little changed Monday, as no economic data will be released today. The big story this week will be the Fed meeting on Wednesday. No change in rates is expected, but investors will be closely watching for clues about the timing of future rate hikes.

Daily Market Update 12/11/09

Rates inched higher Friday following the release of better than expected economic data. December Retail Sales rose 1.3%, well above the consensus forecast of +0.6%. Consumer Sentiment rose to 73.4 from 67.4 last month. A reading of 68.5 had been expected. Yesterday the House passed a huge spending bill that projects a record $1.5 trillion deficit next year, adding to investors' concerns over government debt supply. Mortgage-backed securities may be volatile next week. The Producer Price Index (PPI) and Industrial Production will be released Tuesday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) will come out Wednesday. The Fed will also hold its last FOMC meeting of the year on Wednesday. No other economic data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 12/10/09

Interest rates faced upward pressure Thursday ahead of this afternoon's $13 billion auction of 30-year Treasury bonds. Investors' concerns about massive budget deficits are weighing heavily on Treasury and mortgage-backed securities markets. Weekly Jobless Claims rose to 474,000, above the consensus forecast of 465,000. The October Trade Deficit was lower than expected. Retail Sales figures for November will be released tomorrow at 8:30 AM.

Daily Market Update 12/9/09

Mortgage rates held steady Wednesday as mortgage-backed securities markets drifted ahead of today's 10-year Treasury auction. No economic data will be released today. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner extended the controversial $700 billion TARP fund until October 3, 2010. The TARP's authorization had been due to expire at the end of 2009. The Mortgage Bankers Association weekly purchase activity index rose by 4%, while the refinancing activity index increased by 11%. Average reported 30-year fixed rates for the prior week rose to 4.88% (with 0.7 points) from 4.79%.

Daily Market Update 12/8/09

Mortgage rates were little changed Tuesday. Yesterday's comments from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke helped mortgage-backed securities markets. Bernanke suggested that inflation is likely to remain low, easing concerns by some investors that the Fed might begin raising rates early next year. Stocks and oil prices moved lower, the dollar higher. No economic data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 12/7/09

Rates inched lower Monday as mortgage-backed securities partially recovered from Friday's losses, driven by a stronger than expected Employment Report. The dollar rose against the euro on speculation November's dip in the Unemployment Rate would enable the Fed to begin raising rates sooner than anticipated, perhaps as early as the first quarter of 2010. Investors will be closely watching Fed Chairman Bernanke's speech this afternoon before the Economic Club of Washington for any clues as to the timing of future rate increases. No economic data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 12/4/09

Rates moved higher Friday following a much stronger than expected Employment Report. The economy lost 11,000 jobs in November, far less than the consensus forecast of -125,000, and the smallest monthly loss in two years. The Unemployment Rate dipped to 10% from 10.2% in October. Average Hourly Earnings, a proxy for wage growth, rose slightly. Stocks rallied on the report. Next week will be light in terms of new economic data with the exception of Friday's report on November Retail Sales. No other data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 12/3/09

Mortgage rates were steady to slightly higher Thursday as weekly Jobless Claims fell to 457,000, below the consensus forecast of 480,000, and to the lowest level in 15 months. Third quarter Productivity was revised lower to 8.1% from 9.5%. The Institute for Supply Management services index fell unexpectedly to 48.7, indicating contraction in the services sector of the economy. Stocks were mixed. Tomorrow, the closely-watched Employment Report for November will be released at 8:30 AM et.

Daily Market Update 12/2/09

Rates inched higher Wednesday, reflecting a brief sell off in mortgage-backed securities late Tuesday. Yesterday, Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Charles Plosser indicated the Fed might need to begin raising interest rates while unemployment remains high. In economic news, the ADP forecast for Friday's Employment data came in close to expectations. The Mortgage Bankers Association weekly purchase activity index rose by 4%. Average reported 30-year fixed rates fell last week to 4.79% with 0.7 points, the lowest level since May 15. The Fed's Beige Book, a survey of economic conditions by the Federal Reserve's 12 regional banks, will be released at 2:00 PM.

Daily Market Update 12/1/09

Mortgage rates remained mostly unchanged Tuesday following the release of mixed economic news. Pending Home Sales rose 3.7% in October as first-time buyers rushed to take advantage of the $8,000 tax credit. A decrease of -1.0% was expected. The Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index fell a bit more than forecast to 53.6 last month from 55.7. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector of the economy. No other data will be released today.