Daily Market Update 1/31/12

Mortgage rates inched higher Tuesday reflecting market activity that occurred late Monday.  This morning, the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index fell to 60.2, below the consensus forecast of 63.0.  Readings above 50.0 indicate expansion in the manufacturing sector of the economy.  Consumer Confidence slid to 61.1, far below expectations.  The November S&P Case-Shiller 20-city home price index fell 1.3% and was 3.7% lower than one year ago.  No other key data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 1/30/12

Rates inched lower Monday as concerns about Greece hurt stocks and lifted mortgage-backed securities.  In economic news, the December Core PCE price index, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, rose 0.2% from November and was 1.8% higher than one year ago.  Although tame, the increase was above forecast.  Personal Income increased 0.5% in December, close to expectations.  This morning, while commenting on last week's Fed statement, Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Plosser indicated the Fed may need to raise rates before 2014.  "It is not a commitment and shouldn't be interpreted as a commitment.  It will depend on how the economy evolves", said Plosser.

Daily Market Update 1/26/12

Mortgage rates moved lower Thursday following yesterday's Fed statement.  The Federal Reserve indicated it would likely keep the Fed Funds rate at extraordinarily low levels until at least 2014.  Today's economic data was mixed.  Weekly Jobless Claims rose unexpectedly to 377,000.  Durable Goods Orders increased by 3.0%, beating forecast.  New Home Sales fell to 307,000, below expectations.  Leading Indicators rose by 0.4%, a bit less than expected.  Results from today's 7-year Treasury auction will be released at 1:00 PM.

Daily Market Update 1/25/12

Mortgage rates were little changed Wednesday ahead today's Fed announcement.  The Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve wraps up a two day meeting to discuss monetary policy this afternoon.  It will release a statement at 12:30 and hold a press conference at 2:15.  No rate changes are expected, but the Fed will release its forecast for the Fed Funds Rate for the first time.  Investors will also be looking for any indication of the Fed's plans for additional purchases of mortgage-backed securities.  In economic news, December Existing Homes Sales fell by 3.5%, more than expected.  Last night, President Obama proposed a new refinance program for borrowers who are current on their mortgages, regardless of who owns the loan.  While few details were provided, sources say the Administration plans to ask Congress to allow the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) to insure refinances of underwater mortgages and remove barriers that have kept many borrowers from refinancing.  Considering the current dire financial condition of the FHA, Congressional approval, particularly during an election year, seems extremely unlikely.

Daily Market Update 1/20/12

Mortgage rates inched higher Friday in quiet trading.  This morning, the National Association of Realtors reported December Existing Home Sales rose by 5% to an annualized rate of 4.61 million units, close to forecast.  The increase is seen as further evidence of a gradually improving housing market.  No other key data will be released today.  Next week, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve will meet to discuss monetary policy.  Investors will be focusing on Wednesday's Fed statement and press conference.  Also next week, Durable Goods Orders will be released on Thursday and advanced 4th quarter GDP estimates on Friday.  The Treasury will hold auctions of 2-, 5-, and 7-year notes over three days, beginning Tuesday.

Daily Market Update 1/19/12

Mortgage rates faced upward pressure Thursday as weekly Jobless Claims declined to 352,000, far below forecast.  In other economic news, the December Consumer Price Index (CPI) was unchanged from November, and 3.0% higher year-over-year.  The closely-watched "Core" CPI, which excludes food and energy components, rose 0.1%, matching expectations.  December Housing Starts fell 4.1%, more than expected.  The Philadelphia Fed index, a survey of manufacturing activity in the region, rose to 7.3.  A reading of 10.3 had been forecast.  No other key data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 1/18/12

Rates were little changed Wednesday following the release of mixed economic data.  This morning, the December Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 0.1%, below the consensus forecast of a 0.1% increase.  Core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy components, rose by 0.3%, above expectations, and was 3.0% higher than one year ago.  Industrial Production increased by 0.4% in December, a bit less than expected.  The Mortgage Bankers Association weekly purchase activity index rose 10.3%, while the refinancing activity index surged 26.4%, to the highest level since August.  Average reported 30-year fixed rates fell to 4.06%, not including fees.

Daily Market Update 1/17/12

Mortgage rates held steady Tuesday in quiet trading.  This morning, the Empire State Index rose to 13.5, above forecast, to the highest level since last January.  Stocks moved higher.  No other key data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 1/13/12

Rates edged lower as concerns over European debt hurt stocks and boosted Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities.  This morning, France lost its triple-A credit rating from Standard & Poors.  In economic news, December Import Prices declined 0.1%.  The November Trade Deficit was larger than expected.  Consumer Sentiment jumped to 74.0, the highest level since May.  Stocks moved sharply lower.  Next week, the Producer Price Index and Industrial Production will be released on Wednesday and the Consumer Price Index on Thursday.  No other key data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 1/12/12

Rates moved lower Thursday reflecting improvement in mortgage-backed securities prices late Wednesday.  In economic news, Retail Sales rose 0.1% in December, well below forecast.  Excluding autos, Retail Sales fell 0.2%, the first monthly decline since May 2010.  Weekly Jobless Claims rose to 399,000, above the consensus of 375,000.  The European Central Bank (ECB) made no change in rates, as expected.  Stocks moved lower.  Results from today's 30-year Treasury auction will be released at 1:00 PM.

Daily Market Update 1/11/12

Mortgage rates were little changed Wednesday in quiet trading.  The Mortgage Bankers Association weekly purchase activity index rose by 8.1% while the refinancing activity index increased by 3.3%.  Average reported 30-year fixed rates rose to 4.11% last week, not including fees.  Results from today's 10-year Treasury auction will be released at 1:00 PM.  The Beige Book, a survey of economic activity by the Fed's 12 regional banks, will be released at 2:00 PM.

Daily Market Update 1/10/12

Rates inched higher Tuesday as mortgage-backed securities faced pressure from higher stock prices.  No key economic data will be released today, but results from today's 3-year Treasury auction will be released at 1:00 PM.

Daily Market Update 1/9/12

Mortgage rates inched lower Monday, approaching historic lows.  No key economic data will be released today.  Those considering refinancing may want to start the process prior to February 1, when lenders will begin passing on higher Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac guarantee fees to borrowers.  The fee increases, which equate to about .125% higher mortgage rates, resulted from the two month payroll tax cut extension enacted by Congress and signed by the President in December.

Daily Market Update 1/6/12

Rates were little changed Friday following a stronger than expected Employment Report.  The economy added 200,000 jobs in December, beating forecast.  The Unemployment Rate declined unexpectedly to 8.5%, however the decline was partly due to the increase in the number of people dropping out of the  labor force.  Average Hourly Earnings, a proxy for wage growth, increased by 2.1% from one year ago.  Stocks moved modestly lower.  No other key data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 1/5/12

Mortgage rates inched higher Thursday in volatile trading.  This morning, payroll firm ADP estimated private sector job growth of 325,000 in December, doubling forecast.  However, ADP has had a mixed record of accuracy with past predictions for the Employment Report, which is due out Friday.  Weekly Jobless Claims fell to 372,000, close to expectations.  The Institute for Supply Management services index rose to 52.6, slightly below forecast.  Readings above 50.0 indicate expansion in the services sector of the economy.  No other key data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 1/3/12

Mortgage rates inched higher Tuesday as U.S. financial markets reopened following the New Year's holiday.  Stocks moved higher on improved investor confidence in the global economy.  In economic news, the Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index rose to 53.9 from 52.7, beating forecast.  Readings above 50.0 indicate growth in the manufacturing sector.  Minutes from the December 13th FOMC meeting of the Fed will be released at 2:00 PM.  The big news for the week will be Friday's Employment Report.