Daily Market Update 10/2/13

Mortgage rates were little changed Tuesday following the release of weaker than expected economic data.  This morning, payrolls firm ADP estimated private sector job growth of 166,000 in September, below the consensus forecast of 180,000.  Stocks moved lower.  No other key data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 10/1/13

Rates held steady Tuesday as the partial government shutdown began.  In economic news, the Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index rose unexpectedly to 56.2, beating forecast.  Construction Spending data was due out this morning but will be delayed due to the shutdown.  The status of Friday's key Employment Report for September remains uncertain.  New and existing mortgage applications will continue to be processed, but certain documentation requirements, such as income re-verification through the IRS, could delay closings if the shutdown continues for several days.  Debt ceiling negotiations are potentially a much bigger issue, as a U.S. Government default on its debt would wreak havoc on the economy.  The debt limit is due to be reached in about two weeks.  Hopefully the two parties will come to their senses sometime before then.

Daily Market Update 9/30/13

Rates were little changed Monday as investors remained focused on the budget impasse in Washington.  Stocks were sharply lower.  Stronger than expected economic data had little impact on markets.  This morning, the Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index rose to 55.7, beating forecast.  Readings above 50.0 indicate expansion in manufacturing in the Midwest Region.  No other key data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 9/27/13

Mortgage rates trended lower Friday as lack of progress in debt ceiling negotiations hurt stocks and boosted mortgage-backed securities.  This morning, the August Core PCE index, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, rose 0.1%, matching forecast, and was just 1.2% higher than one year ago.  Personal Income increased 0.4%, in line with expectations.  Consumer Sentiment came in at 77.5, a bit higher than expected.  The Federal Housing Administration (FHA) announced it will need $1.7 billion from the Treasury to help cover losses on its reverse mortgage program for seniors.  No other key data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 9/26/13

Rates remained steady Thursday as mortgage-backed securities held onto recent gains.  Conventional 30-year fixed rates have now decreased by 3/8% over the past two weeks.  This morning, weekly Jobless Claims fell unexpectedly to 305,000, far below the consensus forecast of 330,000.  The computer glitches in two states that caused the data to be distorted in the prior two reports appears to have been corrected.  Pending Home Sales declined by 1.6%, a bit more than expected.  Stocks moved higher.  Results from today's 7-year Treasury auction will be released at 1:00 PM.

Daily Market Update 9/25/13

Mortgage rates held steady Wednesday as the market showed little reaction to today's economic data.  August Durable Goods Orders rose 0.1%, slightly above expectations.  New Homes Sales increased by 7.9% to 421,000 annual units, in line with forecast.  The Mortgage Bankers Association weekly purchase activity index rose 7.0%, while the refinancing activity index increased 4.9%.  Average reported conventional 30-year fixed rates fell to 4.62%, not including fees.  Results from today's 5-year Treasury auction will be released at 1:00 PM.

Daily Market Update 9/24/13

Rates inched lower Tuesday, largely reflecting yesterday's late rally in mortgage-backed securities.  In economic news, the July S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index rose 0.6%, a bit less than forecast, and was 12.4% higher than one year ago.  Consumer Confidence fell to 79.7, close to expectations.  Results from today's 2-year Treasury auction will be released at 1:00 PM.

Daily Market Update 9/23/13

Rates were little changed Monday in quiet trading.  No key economic data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 9/20/13

Mortgage rates held steady Friday in quiet trading.  No economic data will be released today, although several Fed officials will be speaking this afternoon.

Daily Market Update 9/19/13

Rates moved lower Thursday as mortgage-backed securities rallied following yesterday's Fed announcement.  The Official Statement indicated the Fed would delay reducing the volume of monthly asset purchases, known as "quantitative easing" until it sees more evidence of economic growth, noting that the "tightening of financial conditions observed in recent months, if sustained, could slow the pace of improvement in the economy and labor market."  Investors had expected the Fed to begin scaling back its monthly purchases of $85 billion in Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities by about $15 billion.  In today's economic news, weekly Jobless Claims rose to 309,000, but for the second week in a row the figures were distorted by an upgrade to the computer systems in California and Nevada.  August Existing Home Sales increased unexpectedly to 5.48 million annual units, the highest level in over six years.  National Association of Realtors officials noted that August closings mostly represent contracts written in June and July, as mortgage rates began rising.  The Philly Fed Index, a survey of manufacturers in the mid-Atlantic region, jumped to 22.3, far exceeding expectations.  Leading Indicators rose by 0.7%, close to forecast.  No other key data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 9/18/13

Rates faced upward pressure Wednesday as investors eagerly awaited this afternoon's Fed policy statement.  In economic news, Housing Starts rose by 1% in August to an annual rate of 891,000, below the consensus forecast of 910,000.  A decline in multi-family units accounted for the shortfall.  No other key economic data will be released today.  The Fed statement will come out at 2:00 PM, followed by a press conference by Fed Chairman Bernanke at 2:30.  It is expected that we will learn additional details about the timing and scale of Fed tapering of bond purchases, how it will be divided between Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, and how future purchase reductions will be determined.  The Fed will also release its economic forecast for 2016.  Extreme rate volatility is possible.

Daily Market Update 9/17/13

Mortgage rates were little changed Tuesday as the Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve began its two-day meeting to discuss monetary policy.  In economic news, the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.1%, a bit less than expected, and was 1.5% higher than one year ago.  Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy components, also increased 0.1%, and was a tame 1.8% higher year-over-year.  There was little market reaction to the data, as investors await tomorrow's Fed statement, expected around 2:15 PM.  No other key data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 9/16/13

Rates inched lower Monday following the withdrawal of Lawrence Summers as a leading candidate to replace Ben Bernanke as Fed Chairman next year.  Summers would have faced confirmation difficulty among Senate Democrats who object to his ties to the banking industry.  His withdrawal leaves Janet Yellen, the current Fed Vice-Chair, as the clear favorite to replace Bernanke.  Yellen is seen as the more "dovish" of the two regarding inflation, and is more likely to maintain the Fed's loose monetary policy.  Today's economic data was over-shadowed by the news, and had little impact on rates.  August Industrial Production rose 0.4%, a bit below expectations.  The Empire State index, a survey of manufacturers in the region, came in at 6.3, well below forecast.  Readings above zero indicate expansion in the manufacturing sector.  Stocks moved higher.  No other key data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 9/13/13

Rates moved lower Friday following the release of weaker than expected economic data.  August Retail Sales rose 0.2%, below the consensus forecast of 0.5%.  The Producer Price Index (PPI) jumped 0.3%, above expectations, but the "Core" PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy components, was unchanged.  An increase of 0.1% had been expected.  Consumer Sentiment fell to 76.8, far below expectations.  The big news next week will be the two-day Fed meeting beginning on Tuesday.  No rate changes are expected, but investors will be watching closely for clues about the timing of a planned tapering of bond purchases by the Fed, known as "quantitative easing".  Most economists believe the Fed will begin scaling back its volume of purchases beginning this month, but recent data suggests that economic growth may be slowing.  Expect rates to be unusually volatile in the coming days.

Daily Market Update 9/12/13

Mortgage rates inched lower Thursday in quiet trading ahead of next week's key Fed meeting.  In economic news, weekly Jobless Claims declined sharply to 292,000, but the figures were of little comparative value as the totals lacked data from two states that were updating their computer systems.  August Import Prices were unchanged from July, which was below forecast.  Stocks were mixed.  Results from today's 30-year Treasury auction will be released at 1:00 PM.

Daily Market Update 9/11/13

Mortgage rates were little changed Wednesday in quiet trading.  This morning, the Mortgage Bankers Association weekly purchase activity index declined by 3.0%, while the refinancing activity index plummeted 20.2%.  The combined index reached its lowest level since November 2008.  Average reported conventional 30-year fixed rates increased to 4.80%, not including fees.  Results from today's 10-year Treasury auction will be released at 1:00 PM.

Daily Market Update 9/10/13

Mortgage rates held steady Tuesday while stocks rallied on stronger than expected economic data in China.  No key economic data will be released in the U.S. today.  Results from today's 3-year Treasury auction will come out at 1:00 PM.

Daily Market Update 9/9/13

Rates inched lower Monday as the rally in mortgage-backed securities continued following Friday's weaker than expected Employment Report.  No key economic data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 9/6/13

Rates moved lower Friday following weaker than expected employment data.  The economy added 169,000 jobs in August, a bit less than expected, but figures from previous months were revised lower by 74,000.  Although the Unemployment Rate fell unexpectedly to 7.3%, the decline was entirely due to people dropping out of the labor force.  The labor force participation rate (the percentage of people able to work who are working or are looking for work) dropped to the lowest level since 1978.  Today's data may cause the Fed to wait longer to begin tapering its bond purchase program.  In other news, comments from Russian officials indicating that Russia will support Syria in the event of a U.S. attack hurt stocks and boosted mortgage-backed securities.  No other key economic data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 9/5/13

Mortgage rates inched higher Thursday following the release of stronger than expected economic data and ahead of tomorrow's key Employment Report.  In economic news, weekly Jobless Claims fell to 323,000, beating forecast.  Second quarter Productivity was revised higher to 2.3%.  Payroll firm ADP estimated private sector job growth of 176,000 last month, in line with expectations.  The Institute for Supply Management services index jumped to 58.6, well above the consensus forecast of 55.0.  Factory Orders fell by 2.4%, which was better than expected.  Stocks moved higher.  No other key data will be released today.  The closely-watched Non-farm Payrolls Report for August will come out at 8:30 AM on Friday.

Daily Market Update 9/4/13

Mortgage rates held steady Wednesday as stocks moved higher.  This morning, the July Trade Deficit rose to $39.2 billion, above forecast.  The Beige Book, a survey of economic activity by the Fed's 12 regional banks, will be released at 2:00 PM.  The Mortgage Bankers Association weekly purchase activity index decreased by 0.4%, while the refinancing activity index increased by 2.0%.  Average reported conventional 30-year fixed rates fell to 4.73%, not including fees.  Investors are continuing to follow U.S. plans for Syria, and are beginning to focus on Friday's Employment Report for August.

Daily Market Update 9/3/13

Mortgage rates inched higher following the released of stronger than expected economic data.  This morning, July Construction Spending rose by 0.6%, beating forecast.  The Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index increased unexpectedly to 55.7 from 55.4.  Readings above 50.0 indicate expansion in the manufacturing sector of the economy.  Stocks opened higher as the U.S. did not launch a military strike against Syria over the weekend, increasing pressure on mortgage-backed securities.  No other key data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 8/30/13

Mortgage rates held steady Friday in quiet trading ahead of the extended Labor Day weekend.  In economic news, July Core PCE price index, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, rose 0.1%, a bit less than expected, and was a tame 1.2% higher than one year ago.  Personal Income increased by 0.1%, below the consensus forecast of 0.2%.  The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, a survey of Midwest manufacturers, came in at 53.0, matching expectations.  Consumer Sentiment declined to 82.1, but was better than expected.  Financial markets will be closed on Monday.  No other key data will be released today.  Have a safe weekend!

Daily Market Update 8/29/13

Rates were little changed Thursday in volatile trading.  This morning, second quarter GDP estimates were revised higher to 2.5% annual growth, above the consensus forecast of 2.2%.  The unexpectedly large increase was mostly due to an upward revision to exports.  Mortgage-backed securities initially sold off after the report, but have since recovered their losses.  Weekly Jobless Claims declined to 331,000, close to expectations.  Stocks moved higher.  Results from today's 7-year Treasury auction will be released at 1:00 PM.

Daily Market Update 8/28/13

Rates moved higher Wednesday as mortgage-backed securities gave back yesterday's gains.  This morning, the National Association of Realtors reported that the July Pending Home Sales Index fell by 1.3%, a bit more than forecast.  The decline was attributed to increased mortgage rates in recent months.  Today's 5-year Treasury auction results were rated "poor", adding upward pressure to rates.  Oil prices jumped to $110 per barrel on concerns over Syria.  No other key data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 8/27/13

Rates inched lower Tuesday as concerns about possible US military involvement in Syria hurt stocks and boosted mortgage-backed securities.  In economic news, the June S&P Case-Shiller 20-city home price index rose 0.89% from May and was 12% higher than one year ago.  Consumer Confidence increased unexpectedly to 81.5 from 80.3.  A slight decrease had been forecast.  Results from today's 2-year Treasury auction will be released at 1:00 PM.

Daily Market Update 8/26/13

Rates held steady Monday in quiet trading.  This morning, July Durable Goods Orders fell 7.3%, below the consensus forecast of -4.0%.  Stocks inched higher on hopes that the weaker than expected economic data, along with Friday's sharp decline in New Home Sales, might cause the Fed to delay its planned tapering of bond purchases beyond September.  No other key data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 8/23/13

Rates inched lower Friday following the release of weaker than expected housing data.  July New Home Sales fell by 13.4% to 394,000 annual units, well below the consensus forecast of 490,000.  June sales figures were also revised sharply lower.  The recent spike in mortgage rates was cited as a likely culprit for the unexpected decline.  Stocks moved lower.  Next week's key economic data include Monday's release of Durable Goods Orders, revised second quarter GDP on Thursday, and the Core PCE price index on Friday.  No other data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 8/22/13

Mortgage rates inched higher Thursday reflecting market activity that occurred late yesterday following the release of Minutes from the July Fed meeting.  This morning, weekly Jobless Claims increased to 336,000, slightly above forecast.  Leading Indicators rose 0.6%, beating expectations.  The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) reported that average home prices increased nationally by 7.7% over the previous year ending June 30.  The report represents all homes financed through Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.  No other key data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 8/21/13

Rates faced upward pressure Wednesday in volatile trading.  In economic news, the National Association of Realtors reported that July Existing Home Sales rose by 6.5% to 5.39 million annual units, beating expectations.  The data mostly reflects purchase contracts written in May and June, as mortgage rates began rising.  Minutes from last month's Fed meeting showed broad support among Federal Open Market Committee members for plans to begin tapering bond purchases, also known as "quantitative easing", in the near future.  Mortgage-backed securities sold off quickly following the report:




No other key economic data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 8/20/13

Rates were little changed Tuesday as mortgage-backed securities recovered from yesterday's losses.  No key economic data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 8/19/13

Mortgage rates inched higher Monday as investors continued focusing on Fed plans to taper bond purchases, perhaps as early as September.  The closely-watched 10-year Treasury bond reached its highest yield since July 2011.  Stocks were mixed.  No key economic data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 8/16/13

Mortgage rates were little changed Friday.  In economic news, July Housing Starts rose 6% to an annual rate of 896,000, a bit below forecast.  Building Permits, a leading indicator, increased by 3%.  Second quarter Productivity jumped 0.9%, beating expectations.  Consumer Sentiment fell unexpectedly to 80.0.  No other key data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 8/15/13

Rates moved higher Wednesday following the release of stronger than expected employment data.  This morning, weekly Jobless Claims fell to 320,000, the lowest level since October 2007.  Continued improvement in the employment picture reduces the likelihood that the Fed will delay the tapering of its "quantitative easing" program.  In other news, the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2%, in line with expectations, and was 2.0% higher than one year ago.  Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy components, also increased 0.2%.  Industrial Production was unchanged, a bit below forecast.  The Empire State Index and the Philly Fed Index, two separate surveys of manufacturers in their respective regions, both fell short of expectations.  Stocks moved sharply lower.  No other key data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 8/14/13

Rates held steady Wednesday in quiet trading as investors showed little reaction to lower than expected inflation data.  This morning, the July Producer Price Index (PPI) was unchanged, below the consensus forecast of 0.3%, and was 2.1% higher than one year ago.  Core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy components, rose 0.1%, and was a tame 1.2% higher year-over-year.  The Mortgage Bankers Association weekly purchase activity index decreased by 5.4%, while the refinancing activity index declined by 4.4%.  Average reported conventional 30-year fixed rates fell slightly to 4.56%, not including fees.  No other key data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 8/13/13

Rates moved higher Tuesday as increased investor optimism about the pace of economic growth in Europe and Japan hurt mortgage-backed securities.  In the U.S., July Retail Sales increased 0.2%, in line with expectations.  Import Prices rose 0.2%, well below forecast.  Stocks moved lower.  No other key data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 8/12/13

Rates inched lower Monday in quiet trading as weakness in stock markets boosted mortgage-backed securities.  No key economic data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 8/9/13

Mortgage rates held steady Friday in quiet trading.  No key economic data will be released today.  Fixed rates improved by about .125% for the week.  Next week's data include Retail Sales on Tuesday, the Producer Price Index on Wednesday, and the Consumer Price Index on Thursday.

Daily Market Update 8/8/13

Rates inched lower Thursday, reflecting improvements in mortgage-backed securities markets yesterday afternoon.  This morning, weekly Jobless Claims rose to 333,000, close to expectations.  The 4-week average dropped to the lowest level since November 2007.  Stocks moved higher.  In a follow-up to yesterday's blog, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac reported combined second quarter profits of $15 billion, which will be returned to the U.S. Treasury.  The two agencies will soon have paid back $147 billion of the $187 billion received in tax payer bailout funds.  At the current pace of repayment, the entire bailout cost will be recovered in early 2014.  Experts estimate that the elimination of Fannie and Freddie, as proposed by President Obama and being considered by Congress, will increase mortgage interest rates by 1/2% to 3/4%.  The agencies need to be reformed to minimize future risk to tax payers, but not eliminated.

Daily Market Update 8/7/13

Mortgage rates remained unchanged Wednesday in a third consecutive day of quiet trading.  In economic news, the Mortgage Bankers Association weekly purchase activity index rose by 0.7%, while the refinancing activity index fell by 0.1%.  Average reported conventional 30-year fixed rates increased to 4.61%, not including fees.  Yesterday, President Obama urged lawmakers to wind down mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac over the next several years.  The President's plan is similar to a bi-partisan proposal in the Senate, whereby the government would continue to provide a limited guarantee to investors in mortgage-backed securities.  Meanwhile, House Republicans propose eliminating Fannie and Freddie and limiting the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) to insuring only first-time and lower-income buyers.  We are concerned that both approaches will increase mortgage interest rates and reduce competition and the availability of credit.  After being placed into conservatorship by the government, Fannie and Freddie received $187 billion in bailout funds, but have since repaid $132 billion and are continuing to pay huge quarterly dividends to the Treasury.  All of the bailout funds received should be returned to the government by the end of next year.  We believe the two agencies should be merged to increase efficiency and be limited to purchasing only high-quality "Qualified Mortgages" that require full documentation, limited debt-to-income ratios, and have sensible minimum down payment requirements.  Done properly, the merged entity could be highly profitable, continue to provide a stable source of liquidity to the market, and minimize risk to tax payers.

Daily Market Update 8/6/13

Mortgage rates held steady Tuesday as stocks fell sharply.  The June Trade Deficit declined to $34.2 billion, far below the consensus forecast, to the lowest level since October 2009.  Results from today's 3-year Treasury auction will be released at 1:00 PM.

Daily Market Update 8/5/13

Mortgage rates were little changed Monday in quiet trading.  This morning, the Institute for Supply Management services index jumped to 56.0, beating expectations.  Readings above 50.0 indicate expansion in the services sector of the economy.  No other key data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 8/2/13

Rates inched lower Friday following disappointing economic data.  This morning, the Labor Department reported that the economy added 162,000 jobs in July, below the consensus forecast of 180,000.  Figures from prior months were also revised lower.  The Unemployment Rate, which is calculated differently and does not include workers who have exited the workforce, fell to 7.4%.  Average Hourly Earnings, a proxy for wage growth, fell short of expectations with its first decline since October 2012.  The Core PCE price deflator, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, rose 0.2%, and was a tame 1.2% higher than one year ago.  Factory Orders increased 1.5%, a bit below forecast.  Stocks moved lower.  No other key data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 8/1/13

Rates were little changed Thursday as mortgage-backed securities gave back yesterday's late gains on stronger than expected economic data.  Weekly Jobless Claims fell to 326,000, well below the consensus forecast of 345,000, to the lowest level since January 2008.  The Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Index jumped to 55.4, beating expectations.  Readings above 50.0 indicate expansion in the manufacturing sector.  Construction Spending fell by 0.6%.  An increase of 0.5% had been expected.  The European Central Bank (ECB) made no change in rates.  The ECB President suggested that rates would remain at very low levels for an extended period.  Stocks moved higher.  No other key data will be released today.  The closely-watched Employment Report for July will be released tomorrow at 8:30 AM.

Daily Market Update 7/31/13

Mortgage rates moved higher Wednesday following the release of stronger than expected economic data.  This morning, preliminary second quarter GDP figures indicated the economy grew at a 1.7% annual rate, above the consensus forecast of 1.1%.  First quarter GDP was revised lower, however, resulting in first half growth of 1.4%.  Separately, payrolls firm ADP estimated private sector job growth of 200,000 in July, beating expectations.  The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index rose to 52.3, a bit less than expected.  Readings above 50.0 indicate expansion in Midwest manufacturing activity.  The Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve wraps up its two-day meeting to discuss monetary policy this afternoon.  The Fed will release a statement at 2:00 PM.  Investors will be watching closely for clues about the timing of the Fed's anticipated tapering of bond purchases known as "quantitative easing".

Daily Market Update 7/30/13

Mortgage rates held steady Tuesday in relatively quiet trading ahead of tomorrow's Fed announcement.  In economic news, the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index rose 2.4% in May and was an astounding 12.2% higher than one year ago, the largest annual increase since March 2006.  Consumer Confidence fell to 80.3, slightly below expectations.  No other key data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 7/29/13

Mortgage rates were little changed Monday as investors braced for a potentially volatile week.  In economic news, Pending Home Sales fell 0.4% in June, reflecting higher mortgage rates.  A decrease of 1.0% had been expected.  The Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve will begin its scheduled two-day meeting tomorrow to discuss monetary policy.  The Fed will release a statement Wednesday afternoon.  While no rate changes are expected, investors will be looking for clues about the timing of anticipated tapering of purchases of Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities by the Fed, otherwise known as "quantitative easing".  Also Wednesday, preliminary second quarter GDP figures will be released.  The Employment Report, the most closely-watched economic data of the month, will come out on Friday.

Daily Market Update 7/26/13

Rates moved lower Friday as a sell-off in stocks boosted mortgage-backed securities.  This morning, Consumer Sentiment rose to 85.1, beating expectations.  No other key data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 7/25/13

Mortgage rates inched higher Thursday on stronger than expected economic data.  June Durable Goods Orders jumped 4.2%, well above the consensus forecast of 2.0%.  Most of the increase came from aircraft orders, however, which are extremely volatile month-to-month.  Weekly Jobless Claims rose to 343,000, slightly more than expected.  Stocks moved lower.  Results from today's 7-year Treasury auction will be released at 1:00 PM.

Daily Market Update 7/24/13

Rates inched higher Wednesday following the release of stronger than expected manufacturing data in Europe and New Home Sales in the U.S.  New Home Sales jumped 8.3% in June to 497,000 annual units, a five-year high.  Separately, the Mortgage Bankers Association weekly purchase activity index fell by 2%, while the weekly refinance activity index declined by 1%.  Average reported conventional 30-year fixed rates fell to 4.58%, not including fees.  Results from today's 5-year Treasury auction will be released at 1:00 PM.

Daily Market Update 7/23/13

Mortgage rates were little changed Tuesday.  No key economic data will be released today.  Results from today's 2-year Treasury auction will come out at 1:00 PM.

Daily Market Update 7/22/13

Rates held steady Monday in quiet trading.  This morning, the National Association of Realtors reported that June Existing Home Sales fell unexpectedly by 1.2% to 5.08 million annual units.  An increase to 5.25 million unit sales had been forecast.  No other key data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 7/19/13

Rates were little changed Friday as mortgage-backed securities recovered most of yesterday afternoon's losses.  Stocks moved modestly lower.  No key economic data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 7/18/13

Mortgage rates faced upward pressure Wednesday on mixed economic data.  Weekly Jobless Claims fell to 334,000, well below forecast, although the data may have been distorted by the July Fourth holiday.  The Philly Fed Index jumped to 19.8, far above expectations.  Readings above zero indicate expansion in the manufacturing sector in the Philadelphia region.  Leading Indicators were flat, which was a bit lower than expected.  The Mortgage Bankers Association weekly purchase activity index rose by 1%, while the refinance activity index declined by 4%.  Average reported conventional 30-year fixed rates were unchanged, at 4.68%, not including fees.  Fed Chairman Bernanke will be speaking before Congress for a second day.  No other key data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 7/17/13

Rates inched lower following weaker than expected economic data and Fed Chairman Bernanke's testimony before Congress.  Bernanke emphasized that a highly accommodative monetary policy will remain appropriate for a long time, and that the Fed's timeline to taper its bond purchase program depends on the future performance of the economy.  In economic news, June Housing Starts declined by 10% to 836,000 annual units, far below expectations.  Building Permits, a leading indicator, fell 8%.  The Beige Book, a survey of economic activity by the 12 regional Fed banks, will be released at 2:00 PM.

Daily Market Update 7/16/13

Mortgage rates inched lower Tuesday reflecting market improvement late Monday.  In economic news, the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.5%, slightly above the consensus forecast, and was 1.8% higher than one year ago.  Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy components, increased 0.2%, in line with expectations.  Industrial Production rose 0.3%, matching forecast.  Investors are now looking ahead to tomorrow's testimony from Fed Chairman Benanke at 10:00 AM.  No other key data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 7/15/13

Mortgage rates were little changed Monday following the release of mixed economic data.  This morning, the Empire State Index rose to 9.5, well above forecast.  Readings above zero indicate expansion in the manufacturing sector in the region.  June Retail Sales increased 0.4%, far below expectations.  Also this morning, ratings agency Fitch lowered the sovereign credit rating of France.  No other key data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 7/10/13

Mortgage rates were little changed Wednesday ahead of the 2:00 PM release of Minutes from last month's Fed meeting.  Results from today's 10-year Treasury auction will come out at 1:00 PM.  The Mortgage Bankers Association weekly purchase activity index fell by 3.1%, while the refinance activity index dropped by 4.4%.  Average reported 30-year fixed rates jumped to 4.68%, not including fees.  Fed Chairman Bernanke will be speaking today at the National Bureau of Economic Research in Boston at 4:10 PM.

Daily Market Update 7/9/13

Rates inched lower Tuesday as mortgage-backed securities continued to recover from Friday's huge losses.  No key economic data will be released today.  Results from today's 3-year Treasury auction will come out at 1:00 PM.

Daily Market Update 7/8/13

Mortgage rates stabilized Monday following Friday's spike that resulted from a stronger than expected Employment Report.  Rates have now moved to their highest levels in over two years.  No key economic data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 7/3/13

Mortgage rates held steady Wednesday following a flurry of economic data and global news.  This morning, payroll firm ADP estimated private sector job growth of 188,000 in June, well above expectations.  Weekly Jobless Claims fell to 343,000, close to forecast.  The Institute for Supply Management services index declined unexpectedly to 52.2.  Readings above 50.0 indicate expansion in the services sector of the economy.  The Mortgage Bankers Association weekly purchase activity index fell by 3.1%, while the refinancing activity index declined by 15.6%.  Average reported 30-year fixed rates jumped to 4.58% not including fees, the highest level since July 2011.  Turmoil in Egypt created a flight to safety, boosting mortgage-backed securities (MBS), and causing oil prices to rise above $100 per barrel for the first time since September.  Reports that Portugal is having trouble gaining support for its austerity program raised concerns about European countries with debt problems.  Stocks moved lower.  MBS markets will close at 2:00 PM today and be closed tomorrow in observance of Independence Day.  The closely watched Employment Report for June will be released on Friday at 8:30 AM.

Daily Market Update 7/2/13

Mortgage rates were little changed Tuesday in relatively quiet trading.  In economic news, Factory Orders rose 2.1% in May, slightly above forecast.  No other key data will be released today.  This week's big news will be Friday's Employment Report.  Also this week, the European Central Bank (ECB) will be meeting on Thursday.

Daily Market Update 6/28/13

Mortgage rates faced upward pressure Friday in volatile trading.  Today is the last day of the quarter, when investment funds make final adjustments to their portfolios, increasing volatility.  In economic news, the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index fell to 51.6, well below forecast.  Readings above 50.0 indicate expansion in the Midwest manufacturing sector.  Consumer Sentiment rose to 84.1, beating expectations.  Stocks moved sharply lower.  No other key data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 6/27/13

Rates inched lower Thursday as a number of Fed officials suggested that investors have overreacted to the most recent Fed announcement.  Today's economic data was generally better than expected.  The May Core PCE price index, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, rose 0.1% from April, matching forecast, and was a tame 1.1% higher than one year ago.  Weekly Jobless Claims declined to 346,000, in line with expectations.  Pending Home Sales jumped 6.7% in May to the highest level in 6 years.  Stocks moved higher.  Freddie Mac reported that average mortgage rates rose last week to 4.46% from 3.93%, the largest weekly increase in 26 years.  Results from today's 7-year Treasury auction will be released at 1:00 PM.

Daily Market Update 6/26/13

Mortgage rates inched lower Wednesday following the release of weaker than expected GDP data.  First quarter Gross Domestic Product was revised lower to 1.8% from 2.4%.  Slower economic growth could delay the Fed's tapering of bond purchases.  Stocks moved higher.  Results from today's 5-year Treasury auction will be released at 1:00 PM.

Daily Market Update 6/25/13

Despite stronger than expected economic data, mortgage-backed securities were little changed Tuesday in another day of volatile trading.  This morning, the April S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index rose a record 2.5% from March.  It was 12% higher than one year ago, which was the largest annual increase since 2006.  Durable Goods Orders rose 3.6%, beating expectations.  Consumer Confidence jumped to 81.4, far above forecast, to the highest reading since January 2008.  New Home Sales increased to 476,000 annual units, a bit higher than expected.  No other key data will be released today.

Daily Market Update

Mortgage rates continued climbing Monday as investors have dumped record levels of bonds and mortgage-backed securities this month.  30-year fixed rates have now risen by about 1.50% in the past two months and nearly 3/4% since last Wednesday's Fed announcement.  Stocks moved sharply lower.  No key economic data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 6/20/13

Rates have moved sharply higher since the release of yesterday's Fed statement.  If the economy performs as expected, the Fed plans to taper its bond purchases later this year and conclude the program by the middle of next year.  The statement noted that downside risks to the economy have diminished.  Any investors who were looking for signs that tapering would be farther away were very disappointed.  Investors have continued to sell both stocks and bonds this morning.  In other economic news, weekly Jobless Claims jumped to 354,000, well above expectations.  Existing Home Sales rose to 5.18 million annual units, beating forecast.  Leading Indicators increased by 0.1%, a bit less than expected.  The Philly Fed Index, a survey of manufacturers in the region, surged to 12.5.  Readings above zero indicate expansion in the manufacturing sector.  No other key economic data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 6/19/13

Mortgage rates were little changed Wednesday ahead of this afternoon's Fed announcement.  No rate changes are expected, but investors want to know when the Fed will begin tapering its bond purchase program known as "quantitative easing", as well as the Fed's outlook for the economy.  The Fed statement will come out at 2:00 PM, followed by a press conference at 2:30.  No key economic data will be released today.  The Mortgage Bankers Association weekly purchase activity index fell by 4%, while the refinance activity index declined by 3%.  Average reported 30-year fixed rates rose to 4.17%, plus 0.41 "points".

Daily Market Update 6/18/13

Rates faced upward pressure Tuesday as the Fed began its two-day FOMC meeting to discuss monetary policy.  This morning, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.1% in May, a bit lower than expected, and was a tame 1.4% higher than one year ago.  Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy components, increased 0.2%, matching forecast.  May Housing Starts rose 7% to an annual rate of 914,000, below expectations.  Stocks moved higher.  No other key data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 6/17/13

Rates inched higher Monday following an article in the Financial Times suggesting the Fed will announce a move to begin tapering purchases of mortgage-backed securities after its Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Wednesday.  Uncertainty over the future of the Fed's "quantitative easing" policy has roiled financial markets in recent weeks.  No key economic data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 6/7/13

Mortgage rates faced upward pressure Friday in extremely volatile trading following release of the May Employment Report.  The economy added 175,000 jobs last month, slightly above forecast.  The Unemployment Rate rose to 7.6%, but this was due to an increase in the number of people entering the workforce.  Average Hourly Earnings, a proxy for wage growth, was unchanged from April, below expectations.  In total, the figures came in close to the consensus forecast, but investors were positioned for weaker data.  Stocks moved higher, hurting mortgage-backed securities.  No other key data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 6/5/13

Mortgage rates held steady Wednesday following the release of weaker than expected economic data.  Payroll firm ADP forecast private sector job growth of 135,000 in May, below the consensus of 170,000.  First quarter Productivity matched expectations.  Factory Orders rose by 1.0%, a bit less than expected.  The Fed's Beige Book, a survey of economic activity by the 12 regional Federal Reserve Banks, will be released at 2:00 PM.

Daily Market Update 6/4/13

Rates inched higher Tuesday in volatile trading ahead of key employment data due out later this week.  The April Trade Deficit rose to $40.3 billion, a bit below expectations.  Tomorrow, payrolls firm ADP will release its estimate of private jobs growth in May, weekly Jobless Claims will be reported on Thursday, and the Employment Report for May will be released on Friday.  No other key data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 6/3/13

Rates were little changed Monday in another day of volatile trading.  Mortgage-backed securities opened lower, but recovered early losses following the release of weaker than expected economic data.  Construction Spending rose by 0.4% in April, below the consensus forecast of +1.0%.  The Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index declined to 49.0, the first negative reading in six months.  Readings below 50.0 indicate contraction in the manufacturing sector.  No other key economic data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 5/31/13

Rates faced upward pressure Friday in extremely volatile trading following the release of mixed economic data.  This morning, April Personal Income was unchanged from March.  An increase of 0.1% had been expected.  The Core PCE price index, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, was flat last month, and was a tame 2.0% higher than one year ago.  Mortgage-backed securities prices initially moved higher, but fell sharply when the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index jumped to 58.7, far above forecast.  Readings greater than 50.0 indicate expansion in manufacturing in the Midwest Region.  Consumer Sentiment rounded out the day's economic news, rising to 84.5, a six-year high.  Mortgage rates rose 1/4% for the week and 5/8% for the month, reaching their highest levels in more than a year.  Next week's big news will be Friday's Employment Report for May.  No other key data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 5/30/13

Mortgage rates were little changed Thursday following the release of weaker than expected economic data.  This morning, weekly Jobless Claims rose to 354,000, above the consensus forecast of 340,000.  First quarter GDP was revised slightly lower to 2.4%.  Pending Home Sales increased by 0.3%, a bit below expectations.  Results from today's 7-year Treasury auction will be released at 1:00 PM.

Daily Market Update 5/28/13

Mortgage rates continued their upward trend Tuesday following the release of stronger than expected economic data.  This morning, the March S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index rose 1.4% and was 10.9% higher than one year ago.  Consumer Confidence jumped to 76.2, well above forecast, to the highest level since February 2008.  Stocks surged, hurting mortgage-backed securities.  Conventional 30-year fixed rates have now risen by 1/2% in the past three weeks.  Results from today's 2-year Treasury auction will be released at 1:00 PM.

Daily Market Update 5/24/13

Mortgage rates held steady Friday, having increased by about 1/4% for the week.  In economic news, Durable Goods Orders jumped 3.3% in April, easily beating forecast.  No other key data will be released today.  The mortgage-backed securities market will close at 2:00 PM in observance of Memorial Day.

Daily Market Update 5/23/13

Mortgage rates were little changed Thursday after moving higher on Wednesday.  Yesterday, in testimony before Congress, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said that it's possible the Fed could taper its purchases of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) at one of its "next few meetings" based on economic conditions.  According to Bernanke, the main requirement for reducing monetary stimulus is "sustainable" improvement in the labor market.  Many investors were surprised by this, and MBS markets sold off sharply.  Later, the Fed released minutes from the May 1 FOMC meeting which suggested wide disagreement among Committee members about the timing of Fed tapering of its purchases of Treasurys and MBS, also known as Quantitative Easing.  This morning mortgage rates hit their highest mark in over a year.

In economic news, weekly Jobless Claims fell to 340,000, a bit below forecast.  New Home Sales rose by 2.3% to 454,000 annual units, beating expectations.  Stocks moved lower.  Financial markets remain extremely volatile.  No other key data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 5/20/13

Mortgage rates were little changed Monday after reaching two-month highs on Friday.  No key economic data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 5/17/13

Rates faced upward pressure Friday following the release of stronger than expected economic data.  Leading Indicators rose 0.6%, beating the consensus of 0.3%.  Consumer Sentiment jumped to 83.7, far exceeding forecast, to the highest level since July 2007.  Stocks rallied, hurting mortgage-backed securities.  No other key data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 5/16/13

Mortgage rates ticked lower Thursday following the release of weaker than expected economic data.  This morning, weekly Jobless Claims jumped to 360,000, the highest level in six weeks, reversing a recent trend lower.  The April Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.4%, below the consensus of -0.3%, and was a tame 1.1% higher than one year ago.  Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy components, increased 0.1%, a bit below expectations.  April Housing Starts declined 17% to 853,000 annual units, far below forecast, however Building Permits rose by 14%, much higher than expected.  The Philly Fed index, a survey of manufacturers in the region, came in at -5.2.  Readings below zero indicate contraction in the manufacturing sector.  No other key data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 5/15/13

Rates inched higher Wednesday following yesterday's sharp sell-off of mortgage-backed securities (MBS), although MBS recovered some of their losses this morning.  In economic news, April Industrial Production fell 0.5%, below the consensus forecast of -0.2%.  The Empire State Index declined by 1.4%.  An increase of 3.5% had been expected.  The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell 0.7% in April and was a tame 0.6% higher than one year ago.  Core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy components, rose 0.1% and increased 1.7% year-over-year.  No other key data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 5/14/13

Rates were little changed Tuesday in volatile trading.  April Import Prices declined by 0.5%, matching forecast.  Stocks moved higher.  No other key data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 5/10/13

Rates inched higher Friday following relatively weak demand for long-term Treasurys at this week's auctions.  No key economic data will be released today.  Next week, Retail Sales figures come out on Monday, the Producer Price Index on Wednesday, and the Consumer Price Index on Thursday.

Daily Market Update 5/9/13

Rates faced upward pressure Thursday following the release of stronger than expected employment data.  Weekly Jobless Claims fell to 323,000, well below the consensus forecast of 335,000, to the lowest level since January 2008.  The reduction in Jobless Claims seen over the past three weeks signals that companies are slowing the pace of layoffs.  Results from today's 30-year Treasury auction will be released at 1:00 PM.

Daily Market Update 5/8/13

Mortgage rates have remained largely unchanged all week in quiet trading following last week's market volatility.  No key economic data is due out until next Monday.  Results from today's 10-year Treasury auction will be released at 1:00 PM.

Daily Market Update 5/3/13

Mortgage rates moved higher Friday as stocks jumped following the release of stronger than expected employment data.  The economy added 165,000 jobs in April, beating forecast, and the figures for February and March were revised higher by 114,000.  The Unemployment Rate fell unexpectedly to 7.5%.  Average Hourly Earnings, a proxy for wage growth, rose 0.2% last month, in line with expectations.  In other news, the Institute for Supply Management services index came in at 53.1, slightly below the consensus forecast, and Factory Orders fell by 4.0%.  A decrease of 3.0% had been expected.  No other key data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 5/2/13

Mortgage rates were little changed Thursday in spite of better than expected economic news.  Weekly Jobless Claims fell to 324,000, the lowest level since January 2008.  The March Trade Deficit declined to $38.8 billion, far below the consensus forecast of $43 billion.  Fourth quarter Productivity came in at 0.7%, below expectations.  Yesterday's Fed statement was uneventful.  The Fed will continue purchases of $85 billion per month of Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities until the labor market improves "substantially".  The only change from its last statement was the addition that the Fed is "prepared to increase or reduce" the pace of asset purchases based on changes in its outlook for the labor market and inflation.  No other key data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 5/1/13

Rates inched lower Wednesday following the release of weaker than expected economic data.  This morning, payroll firm ADP forecast private sector job growth of 119,000 in April, far below the consensus of 155,000.  The Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index fell to 50.7.  Readings above 50.0 indicate expansion in the manufacturing sector of the economy.  Construction Spending declined by 1.7%.  An increase of 0.5% had been expected.  The Fed wraps up its two day FOMC meeting to discuss monetary policy this afternoon and will make an announcement at 2:00 PM.  No rate changes are expected, but investors will be looking for the latest news on the Fed's view of the labor market and the "Quantitative Easing" bond buying program.

Daily Market Update 4/30/13

Mortgage rates were little changed Tuesday as the Federal Open Market Committee of the Fed began its two day meeting to discuss monetary policy.  In economic news, the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index fell unexpectedly to 49.0.  Readings below 50.0 indicate contraction in manufacturing in the Midwest region.  The Case-Shiller 20-city home price index increased 9.3% from one year ago, the largest annual increase since 2006.  Consumer Confidence jumped to 68.1, well above forecast.  Eurozone unemployment rose to 12.1%, a record high.  Stocks moved lower.  No other key data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 4/29/13

Mortgage rates held steady Monday following the release of mixed economic data.  The March Core PCE price index, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, was unchanged from February, and was 1.1% higher than one year ago.  A monthly increase of 0.1% had been expected.  Personal Income rose 0.2%, in line with expectations.  Pending Home Sales increased 1.5% in March, beating forecast.  Stocks moved higher.  No other key data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 4/24/13

Mortgage rates eased slightly Wednesday following the release of weaker than expected economic data.  March Durable Goods Orders fell by 5.7%, well below forecast.  However, excluding volatile aircraft orders, the decrease was a more tame 1.4%.  Stocked edged lower.  Results from today's 5-year Treasury auction will be released at 1:00 PM.

Daily Market Update 4/23/13

Mortgage rates were virtually unchanged Tuesday as a rally in stocks was offset by weaker than expected economic growth in China and Europe.  This morning, New Home Sales rose 1.5% in March to 417,000 annual units, slightly above expectations.  Results of today's 2-year Treasury auction will be released at 1:00 PM.

Daily Market Update 4/22/13

Mortgage rates held steady Monday following the release of weaker than expected housing data.  The National Association of Realtors said Existing Home Sales fell 0.6% in March to 4.92 million annual units, although the median price jumped 11.8% from one year earlier, the largest increase since 2005.  A limited supply of inventory was cited as a driving factor in both figures.  No other key data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 4/19/13

Mortgage rates held steady Friday in quiet trading as stocks moved lower.  No key economic data will be released today.  Next week, Existing Home Sales figures will come out on Monday, New Home Sales on Tuesday, Durable Goods Orders will be released on Wednesday, and preliminary first quarter GDP on Friday.  Also next week the Treasury will hold auctions of 2-, 5-, and 7-year notes over three days beginning Tuesday.

Daily Market Update 4/18/13

Rates were little changed Thursday.  In economic news, weekly Jobless Claims rose to 352,000, slightly above forecast.  The Philly Fed Index, a survey of manufacturers in the region, came in at 1.3.  A reading of 3.0 had been expected.  Readings above zero indicate expansion in the manufacturing sector.  Leading Indicators fell 0.1%, a bit below expectations.  No other key data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 4/15/13

Rates held steady Monday as gold prices and stocks tumbled.  Gold fell below $1,400 per ounce this morning, down over $100 for the day.  In other news, the Empire State index declined to 3.1, below the consensus forecast of 7.0.  Readings above zero indicate expansion in manufacturing in the region.  No other key data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 4/12/13

Mortgage rates inched lower Friday following the release of weaker than expected economic data.  March Retail Sales declined 0.4%, far below the consensus forecast of 0.0%.  Since Retail Sales represent roughly 70% of economic activity, a downward trend would have significant impact on economic growth.  The March Producer Price Index (PPI) fell 0.6% and was 1.1% higher than one year ago.  Core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy components, rose 0.2%, matching expectations.  Consumer Sentiment fell sharply to 72.3 from 78.6.  A reading of 78.0 had been expected.  No other key economic data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 4/11/13

Mortgage rates were little changed Thursday in volatile trading.  In economic news, weekly Jobless Claims fell to 346,000, well below expectations, leading many investors to conclude that last week's large jump in claims was a temporary distortion due to the Easter holiday.  Import Prices declined 0.5%, matching forecast.  Results from today's 30-year Treasury auction will be released at 1:00 PM.

Daily Market Update 3/28/13

Mortgage rates held steady in quiet trading Thursday following the release of weaker than expected economic data.  This morning, weekly Jobless Claims rose to 357,000, above the consensus forecast of 340,000.  Fourth quarter GDP was revised higher to 0.4%, just short of expectations.  The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index fell to 52.4.  Readings above 50.0 indicate expansion in Midwest manufacturing.  Results from today's 7-year Treasury auction will be released at 1:00 PM.

Daily Market Update 3/27/13

Rates inched lower Wednesday as stocks fell following weaker than expected home sales and renewed concerns about Italy.  The vote in recent Italian elections was split between three parties, and they have been unable to form a coalition government, making recovery from its debt problems even more challenging.  In the U.S., the National Association of Realtors reported that the Pending Home Sales index fell 0.4%, far below expectations.  Lack of adequate inventory was cited as a key reason for the decline.  Results from today's 5-year Treasury auction will be released at 1:00 PM.

Daily Market Update 3/26/13

Mortgage rates held steady Tuesday following the release of mixed economic data.  February Durable Goods Orders jumped 5.7%, beating forecast, but excluding volatile aircraft orders the results fell short of expectations.  The January S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index rose 8.1% from one year ago, the largest annual increase since 2006.  Consumer Confidence slipped to 59.7.  A reading of 68.0 had been expected.  New Home Sales fell to 411,000 annual units, slightly below the consensus forecast.  Stocks moved higher.  Results from today's 2-year Treasury auction will be released at 1:00 PM.

Daily Market Update 3/25/13

Rates were little changed Monday as mortgage-backed securities recovered from early losses.  Stocks initially rallied on news that a bank bailout deal had been reached between Cypress and the ECB, but optimism quickly faded as details of the plan emerged.  Deposits up to 100,000 euros will be spared any tax assessment, while deposits above that amount will be taxed up to 40%.  Many wealthy Russian depositors will be affected.  Political uncertainty in Italy also contributed to investor sentiment as stocks turned sharply lower.  No key economic data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 3/22/13

Rates were little changed Friday as investors remained focused on events in Europe.  This morning the ECB warned that it will cut off emergency funding for banks in Cypress on Monday if no deal is reached.  It now appears possible that Cyprus will leave the European Union.  Next week's key economic data includes the release of Durable Goods Orders on Tuesday, final fourth quarter GDP figures on Thursday, and Core PCE, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, on Friday.  No key data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 3/21/13

Mortgage rates held steady Thursday after moving higher late Wednesday.  Yesterday the Fed indicated it will continue purchasing $85 billion worth of Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities each month until the labor market improves significantly.  This morning, weekly Jobless Claims rose to 336,000, which was lower than expected.  Existing Home Sales increased to 4.98 million annual units, slightly below forecast.  The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) said home prices rose 6.5% from January 2012 to January 2013, the largest annual increase since 2006.  Leading Indicators increased 0.5%, in line with expectations.  In Europe, the European Central Bank's Governing Council said Cypress has until Monday to agree to an acceptable alternative plan in order to continue receiving emergency bailout funds and avoid bankruptcy.  Global financial markets remained volatile.  No other key data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 3/19/13

Mortgage rates were little changed Tuesday as the Fed began its two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting to discuss monetary policy.  An announcement by the Fed will be made tomorrow afternoon.  In economic news, February Housing Starts rose by 1.0% to an annual rate of 917,000 units, beating expectations.  Building Permits jumped 5% to the highest level since June 2008.  A vote on the proposal to tax bank deposits in Cypress as a condition for a bank bailout by the EU is scheduled for later today, although it may be postponed due to public outcry.  No other key economic data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 3/18/13

Rates moved lower Monday as uncertainty in Europe hurt stocks and boosted mortgage-backed securities.  This morning the EU announced it will provide a 10 billion euro bailout to Cypress only if private banks in Cypress tax deposits at a 6.75% to 10% rate, depending on account size.  The bank tax is hugely unpopular, and the government has postponed a vote until tomorrow to try to develop a more acceptable plan.  Without the bailout Cyprus faces a high risk of default.  No key economic data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 3/15/13

Mortgage rates inched lower Friday despite stronger than expected inflation data.  The January Consumer Price Index (CPI) jumped 0.7%, above the consensus 0.5%, and was 2.0% higher than one year ago.  Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy components, increased 0.2%, matching forecast.  February Industrial Production rose 0.7%, above the consensus of 0.5%.  Capacity Utilization reached its highest level since March 2008.  Consumer Sentiment fell unexpectedly to 71.8, the lowest reading since December 2011.  Stocks moved lower.  Next week's big event will be the two day FOMC meeting of the Fed which wraps up on Wednesday.  No rate changes are expected, but investors will be watching closely for clues about the future direction of the current "Quantitative Easing" program in which the Fed is purchasing long-term Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities to hold down interest rates.  No other key economic data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 3/13/13

Mortgage rates held steady Wednesday following the release of stronger than expected economic data.  February Retail Sales rose 1.1%, far above forecast.  Some economists had expected the increased payroll tax and higher gas prices to slow sales activity, but today's data contradicted that view.  Import Prices increased 1.1% in February, but were lower than one year ago.  Stocks were little changed.  Results from today's 10-year Treasury auction will be released at 1:00 PM.

Daily Market Update 3/8/13

Rates moved higher Friday following the release of stronger than expected employment data.  Against a consensus forecast of 170,000, the economy added 236,000 jobs in February.  The Unemployment Rate fell to 7.7% from 7.9%, to the lowest level since December 2008.  Average Hourly Earnings rose 0.2%.  Stocks rallied on the news.  No other key data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 3/7/13

Rates inched higher Thursday as an improving outlook for the labor market pushed stocks higher and hurt mortgage-backed securities.  Weekly Jobless Claims fell to 340,000, below the consensus forecast of 350,000.  The January Trade Deficit rose to $44.4 billion, a bit higher than expected.  Fourth quarter Productivity was revised lower to -1.9%.  Non-farm Payrolls and the February Unemployment Rate will be released tomorrow at 8:30 AM.

Daily Market Update 3/6/13

Rates faced upward pressure Wednesday as stocks moved higher on stronger than expected economic data.  This morning, payroll firm ADP estimated private sector job growth of 198,000 in February, beating forecast.  Factory Orders fell by 2.0%, matching expectations.  The Mortgage Bankers Association weekly purchase activity index jumped 15%, while the refinancing activity index increased 14.8%.  Average reported 30-year fixed rates fell to 3.70% plus 0.39 points.  The Fed's Beige Book, a survey of economic activity by the 12 regional Federal Reserve Banks, will be released at 1:00 PM.

Daily Market Update 3/5/13

Mortgage rates were little changed Tuesday as a stock market rally carried the Dow Jones Industrial Average to a new record high.  In economic news, the Institute for Supply Management Services Index rose to 56.0, beating expectations.  Readings above 50.0 indicate expansion in the services sector.  The big report this week will be Friday's release of February Employment data.

Daily Market Update 3/4/13

Mortgage rates were mostly unchanged Monday in quiet trading.  No economic data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 3/1/13

Mortgage rates were little changed Friday on mixed economic data.  January Personal Income declined by 3.6%, compared to a consensus forecast of -2.0%.  Core PCE price index, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, rose 0.1%, a bit less than expected.  The Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index came in at 54.2, beating expectations.  Readings above 50.0 indicate expansion in manufacturing.  Consumer Sentiment rose to 77.6 from 76.3, while Construction Spending fell by 2.1%.  Stocks moved sharply lower as investors braced for government spending cuts resulting from "Sequestration".  No other data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 2/28/13

Rates held steady Thursday as mixed economic data had little impact on mortgage-backed securities.  This morning, weekly Jobless Claims fell to 344,000, well below forecast.  Fourth Quarter GDP was revised slightly higher, to +0.1% from -0.1%, although an increase to 0.5% had been expected.  The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index rose to 56.8, beating expectations.  Readings above 50.0 indicate expansion in the manufacturing sector for the Midwest region.  No other key data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 2/27/13

Mortgage rates inched lower Wednesday in volatile trading.  Durable Goods Orders declined by 5.2% last month, a bit more than expected.  Pending Home Sales jumped 4.5%, well above expectations, to the highest level since April 2010.  Stocks moved higher.  Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will testify before Congress about current monetary policy for a second day.  Results from today's 7-year Treasury auction will be released at 1:00 PM.

Daily Market Update 2/26/13

Mortgage rates inched lower Tuesday reflecting improvement in mortgage-backed securities markets late Monday.  Yesterday, stocks moved sharply lower following election results in Italy that cast doubts on current austerity measures required by the European Union.  In economic news, New Home Sales jumped to 437,000 annual units, far above expectations, to the highest level since July 2008.  Consumer Confidence rose to 69.6, easily beating forecast.  Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is testifying before Congress this morning regarding current Federal Reserve monetary policy.  Results from today's 5-year Treasury auction will be released at 1:00 PM.

Daily Market Update 2/25/13

Rates were little changed Monday as mortgage-backed securities recovered from an early sell-off.  After having risen by about 3/8% from their all-time lows, mortgage rates appear to have stabilized somewhat over the past two weeks.  No key economic data will be released today.  Results from today's 2-year Treasury auction will come out at 1:00 PM.

Daily Market Update 2/20/13

Mortgage rates inched higher Wednesday.  In economic news, the January Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.2%, slightly below expectations, and was 1.4% higher than one year ago.  Core PPI, which excludes food and energy components, increased 0.2%, matching forecast.  January Housing Starts fell 9% to an annual rate of 890,000 units, below the consensus of 910,000.  Building Permits, a leading indicator, rose 2% to the highest level since June 2008.  The Mortgage Bankers Association weekly purchase activity index declined by 1.7%, while the refinancing activity index dropped 1.6%.  The average reported 30-year fixed rate rose to 3.75%, not including fees.  Detailed Minutes from the January 30 Fed meeting will be released at 2:00 PM.

Daily Market Update 2/19/13

Mortgage rates were little changed Tuesday in quiet trading.  No key economic data will be released today.  The Producer Price Index and minutes from last month's Fed meeting will be released on Wednesday.  The Consumer Price Index will come out on Thursday.

Daily Market Update 2/14/13

Mortgage rates were little changed Thursday in light trading.  This morning, weekly Jobless Claims fell to 341,000, well below expectations.  Stocks were mixed.  Results from today's 30-year Treasury auction will be released at 1:00 PM.

Daily Market Update 2/13/13

Mortgage rates inched higher Wednesday, continuing their upward trend.  In economic news, January Retail Sales rose 0.1%, matching expectations.  Import Prices increased 0.6%, mostly due to higher energy prices.  The Mortgage Bankers Association weekly purchase activity index fell 10%, while the refinancing activity index declined 6%.  Average reported 30-year fixed rates rose to 3.75% with 0.43 "points", the highest level since September.  Results from today's 10-year Treasury auction will be released at 1:00 PM.

Daily Market Update 2/8/13

Rates faced upward pressure Friday as a rally in stocks hurt mortgage-backed securities.  In economic news, the December Trade Deficit declined to $38.5 billion, much lower than expected.  Strength in exports accounted for much of the decrease, and will likely lead to an upward revision of fourth quarter GDP.  No other key data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 2/7/13

Rates held steady Thursday following the release of weaker than expected economic data.  Weekly Jobless Claims came in at 366,000, slightly above the consensus forecast of 360,000.  Fourth Quarter Productivity fell 2.0%, below expectations.  Stocks moved lower.  No other key data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 2/5/13

Rates inched higher Tuesday as extreme market volatility continued.  In a reversal of yesterday's activity, investors moved back into stocks, hurting bonds and mortgage-backed securities.  Stronger than expected economic data in Europe was the primary influence.  In the U.S., the Institute for Supply Management services index came in at 55.2, slightly higher than forecast.  Readings above 50.0 indicate expansion in the services sector of the economy.  No other key data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 2/4/13

Mortgage rates were little changed Monday following extremely volatile trading last Friday.  Friday's Employment Report for January initially boosted mortgage-backed securities (MBS) as the Unemployment Rate rose unexpectedly to 7.9%  Data released later in the morning, including the Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index, Consumer Sentiment, and Construction Spending all came in above forecast, causing stocks to rally and hurting MBS's.  This morning, Factory Orders rose 1.8%, slightly less than expected.  Stocks have moved lower, allowing MBS's to erase Friday's losses.  No other key data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 1/31/13

Mortgage rates were little changed Thursday in volatile trading following the release of mixed economic data.  Weekly Jobless Claims jumped to 368,000, well above the consensus forecast of 350,000.  Personal Income rose 2.6%, beating expectations.  Abnormally large year-end bonus payments ahead of higher 2013 tax rates accounted for much of the increase.  December Core PCE price index, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, was unchanged from November, and was a tame 1.4% higher than one year ago.  The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index rose to 55.6, much higher than expected.  Readings above 50.0 indicate expansion in the manufacturing sector in the Midwest region.  No other key economic data will be released today.  The closely-watched Employment Report for January will come out tomorrow at 8:30 AM.

Daily Market Update 1/30/13

Rates moved higher Wednesday ahead of this afternoon's Fed statement.  The Federal Open Market Committee wraps up a two day meeting to discuss monetary policy today at 2:15 PM.  Investors will be looking for indications of how much longer the Fed will continue to purchase Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities (MBS).  Any change from the statement in December could have a large impact on MBS prices.  In economic news, fourth quarter GDP declined unexpectedly by 0.1%, far below forecast.  The weakness came mostly from government spending and inventories, while both business and consumer spending were relatively strong.  Separately, payroll firm ADP projected private sector job growth of 192,000 in December, a bit higher than expected.  The Mortgage Bankers Association weekly purchase activity index fell by 1.8%, while the refinancing activity index declined by 10.2%.  Average reported 30-year fixed rates rose to 3.67%, not including fees.  Results from today's 7-year Treasury auction will be released at 1:00 PM.

Daily Market Update 1/28/13

Mortgage rates moved higher Monday in extremely volatile trading.  30-year fixed rates have now risen by about 1/4% over the past 10 days.  10-year Treasury yields reached 2.0% for the first time since last April.  In economic news, Durable Goods Orders rose 4.6%, far above the consensus forecast of +2.0%.  Pending Home Sales fell 4.3% in December, largely due to a lack of inventory.  Investors have now turned their focus to the two day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting of the Fed which wraps up Wednesday afternoon, and Friday's release of the Employment Report for January, the most closely watched economic data of the month.  Results of today's 2-year Treasury auction will be released at 1:00 PM.

Daily Market Update 1/24/13

Rates faced upward pressure Thursday as stronger than expected employment data boosted stocks and hurt mortgage-backed securities.  Weekly Jobless Claims fell to 330,000, well below forecast, to the lowest level in five years.  Leading Indicators rose 0.5%, in line with expectations.  No other key data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 1/23/13

Mortgage rates inched lower Wednesday.  The main focus will be on the House vote to suspend the debt ceiling until May 19.  Investors will be trying to determine if the two parties are more willing to work together to reach a compromise on deficit reduction.  No key economic data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 1/22/13

Mortgage rates were virtually unchanged Monday.  In economic news, Existing Home Sales fell unexpectedly to 4.94 million annual units.  An increase to 5.10 million had been forecast.  Stocks were mixed.  No other key data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 1/18/13

Mortgage rates were little changed Friday after moving higher on Thursday.  Consumer Sentiment fell unexpectedly to 71.3.  An increase to 75.0 had been forecast.  No major economic data will be released next week, although we will get a look at housing figures, with Existing Home Sales coming out on Tuesday and New Home Sales on Friday.

Daily Market Update 1/17/13

Rates inched higher Thursday as stronger than expected economic data boosted stocks and hurt mortgage-backed securities.  This morning, weekly Jobless Claims fell to 335,000, far below forecast, to the lowest level in five years.  December Housing Starts jumped 12% to 954,000 annual units, easily beating expectations.  The Philadelphia Fed index, a survey of manufacturers in the region, declined unexpectedly to -5.8.  Readings below zero indicate contraction in the manufacturing sector.  No other key data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 1/15/13

Mortgage rates were little changed Tuesday following the release of mixed economic data.  December Retail Sales jumped 0.5% led by increased auto sales, beating expectations.  The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell 0.2%, below the consensus of -0.1%, and was 1.3% higher than one year ago.  Core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy components, rose 0.1%, and was a tame 2.0% higher year-over-year.  The Empire State Index, a survey of manufacturing activity in the region, came in a -7.8, well below forecast.  Readings below zero indicate contraction in the manufacturing sector.  Stocks moved lower.  No other key data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 1/14/13

Mortgage rates inched lower Monday on reports that Japan is considering a new program to purchase foreign bonds in an attempt to weaken the value of the Yen relative to other currencies.  No key economic data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 1/11/13

Mortgage rates held steady Friday, with little net change for the week.  This morning, December Import Prices fell 0.1%, compared to a consensus forecast of +0.1%.  The November Trade Deficit rose to $48.7 billion, exceeding expectations.  Stocks moved lower.  Key economic news next week includes Tuesday's release of Retail Sales and the Producer Price Index for December.  The Consumer Price Index comes out on Wednesday.  No other key data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 1/10/13

Rates inched higher Thursday as stronger than expected economic data in China hurt mortgage-backed securities.  This morning, the European Central Bank (ECB) made no change in rates, as expected.  In the U.S., weekly Jobless Claims fell to 371,000, a bit higher than expected.  Results of today's 30-year Treasury auction will be released at 1:00 PM.  In other news, the Consumer Finance Protection Bureau released its much anticipated Qualified Mortgage Rule.  The Rule, which takes effect one year from today, attempts to establish minimum underwriting standards, eliminate certain "risky" loan features, and limit originator compensation.

Daily Market Update 1/9/13

Mortgage rates were little changed Wednesday, although mortgage-backed securities faced some pressure from a rally in stock prices.  Investors are also concerned about the lack of progress in deficit reduction talks.  No key economic data will be released today.  The Mortgage Bankers Association weekly purchase activity index rose 9.6%, while the refinancing activity index jumped 12.1%.  Average reported 30-year fixed rates increased to 3.61%, not including fees, a two month high.  Rates have risen by about 1/4% over the past four weeks.  Results from today's 10-year Treasury auction will be released at 1:00 PM.

Daily Market Update 1/8/13

Mortgage rates edged lower Tuesday as mortgage-backed securities benefited from falling stock prices.  No key economic data will be released today.  Results from today's 3-year Treasury auction will come out at 1:00 PM.

Daily Market Update 1/7/13

Rates held steady Monday in quiet trading.  No key economic data will be released today.  In other mortgage-related news, Bank of America agreed to pay Fannie Mae $3.6 billion to settle home loan repurchase claims and $6.75 billion to repurchase delinquent mortgages with questionable documentation created by Countrywide Home Loans prior to 2008.  Separately, B of A agreed to sell servicing rights on $306 billion in home loans to other servicers.

Daily Market Update 1/4/13

Mortgage rates moved higher Friday reflecting a sharp sell off of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) late Thursday.  Yesterday, unfavorable repricing took place following the release of Minutes from the December 12 FOMC meeting of the Fed showing far less support for continued purchases of Treasurys and MBS than investors had expected.  Several Fed officials thought it would "probably be appropriate to slow or to stop purchases well before the end of 2013".  In short, when the Fed scales back asset purchases, reduced demand is likely to push MBS prices lower, thereby increasing interest rates.  Trading has been extremely volatile since the release.  In economic news this morning, the economy added 155,000 jobs last month, slightly more than expected.  The Unemployment Rate remained at 7.8%.  The Institute for Supply Management services index rose to 56.1, beating forecast.  Readings above 50.0 indicate expansion in the services sector.  Factory Orders were unchanged.  An increase of 0.5% had been expected.  No other key data will be released today.

Daily Market Update 1/3/13

Mortgage rates were little changed Thursday as stock prices moved lower following yesterday's surge.  In economic news, weekly Jobless Claims rose to 372,000, above forecast.  Payroll firm ADP estimated private sector job growth of 215,000 in December, beating expectations.  The Mortgage Bankers Association weekly purchase activity index fell by 10.5%, while the refinancing activity index declined by 10.4%.  Average reported 30-year fixed rates rose to 3.52%, not including fees.  The most closely-watched data of the month, Non-farm Payrolls and the Unemployment Rate, will be released tomorrow at 8:30 AM.

Daily Market Update 1/2/13

Mortgage rates inched higher Wednesday as stocks rallied following last night's deal to avoid the "fiscal cliff".  While much of the debate, including entitlement reform, was simply postponed, investors were relieved that simultaneous tax increases and automatic spending cuts were avoided, at least for now.  In economic news, the Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index rose to 50.7, slightly above forecast.  Construction Spending unexpectedly declined by 0.3%.  Minutes from the December 12 FOMC meeting of the Fed will be released at 2:00 PM.